Personal profile
Research interests
Michal Onderco is Full Professor of International Relations in the Department of Public Administration and Sociology at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
As a scholar of international security, his work examines how states, institutions, and societies navigate the evolving landscape of global security governance. His research is organized around three main lines of inquiry.
Nuclear governance, nonproliferation, and deterrence
A central focus of his scholarship is the evolution and contestation of the global nuclear order. He has written extensively on the politics of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), nuclear sharing in Europe, the dynamics of treaty negotiations, and the behavior of both established and emerging powers within nuclear institutions. His recent work also explores how geopolitical shocks—such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—reshape national strategies and public attitudes toward deterrence, nuclear risk, and disarmament.
The second research pillar investigates how public opinion, ideology, businesses, political parties, and elite preferences shape states’ security and foreign policies. Using cross-national surveys, experiments, and elite studies, he analyzes societal views on nuclear weapons, sanctions, and the use of military force. This work highlights the complex interplay between public attitudes, partisan politics, and policy outcomes, including gaps between public and elite preferences in areas such as nuclear disarmament and coercive diplomacy.
A third line of research examines how new technologies—especially military artificial intelligence—interact with broader shifts in global order and strategic competition. His work analyzes how states position themselves within emerging governance frameworks, how technological change alters patterns of cooperation and rivalry, and how alliances and institutions adapt to new security domains.
Before coming to Erasmus University, he obtained his PhD in political science from Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam in 2014. In the past, he held visiting positions at the European University Institute, Stanford University, Columbia University, and Waseda University.
Expertise related to UN Sustainable Development Goals
In 2015, UN member states agreed to 17 global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to end poverty, protect the planet and ensure prosperity for all. This person’s work contributes towards the following SDG(s):
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SDG 16 Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions
Fingerprint
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Collaborations and top research areas from the last five years
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Populist Publics’ Affinity for Nuclear Weapons? Explaining Opposition to the Nuclear Sharing Weapons in European Populist Publics
Etienne, T. W., Onderco, M., Destradi, S. & Krouwel, A., 1 Mar 2026, In: International Studies Quarterly. 70, 1, p. sqaf093 sqaf093.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review
Open AccessFile9 Downloads (Pure) -
Mind the Deterrence Gap: Assessing Europe’s Nuclear Options
Bunde, T., Davis, J. W., Major, C., Dill, J., Fayet, H., Horovitz, L., Kulesa, Ł., Lutsch, A., Onderco, M., Pauly, J. & Wucherpfennig, J., 11 Feb 2026, Munich/Berlin/St. Gallen.Research output: Book/Report/Inaugural speech/Farewell speech › Book › Professional
Open Access -
Understanding military AI governance through the Advocacy Coalition Framework
Onderco, M. & Javadi, M., 31 Jan 2026, (E-pub ahead of print) In: Politics.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review
Open AccessFile1 Citation (Scopus)11 Downloads (Pure) -
Friends as neighbors? Geographic closeness improves support to other governments
Onderco, M. & Tago, A., 1 Jan 2026, In: Conflict Management and Peace Science. 43, 1, p. 81-93 13 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review
Open AccessFile3 Citations (Scopus)15 Downloads (Pure) -
Leader ideology and state commitment to multilateral treaties
Vignoli, V. & Onderco, M., Dec 2025, In: Review of International Organizations. 20, 4, p. 1023-1052 30 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review
Open AccessFile2 Citations (Scopus)74 Downloads (Pure)
Datasets
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International Treaty Ratification Votes Database (ITRVD), version #1.0
Ostermann, F. (Creator), Böller, F. (Creator), Herranz-Surrallés, A. (Creator), Kaarbo, J. (Creator), Lagassé, P. (Creator), Martill, B. (Creator), Onderco, M. (Creator), Raunio, T. (Creator), Vignoli, V. (Creator) & Wagner, W. (Creator), 2022
DOI: 10.7910/dvn/zrctnc, https://dataverse.harvard.edu/citation?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/ZRCTNC
Dataset
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Is this crisis different? Attitudes towards EU fiscal transfers in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic
Haverland, M. (Creator), van der Veer, R. (Creator) & Onderco, M. (Creator), 2022
DOI: 10.25384/sage.c.6092466.v1, https://sage.figshare.com/collections/Is_this_crisis_different_Attitudes_towards_EU_fiscal_transfers_in_the_wake_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic/6092466/1
Dataset
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sj-Rmd-2-eup-10.1177_14651165221112988 - Supplemental material for Is this crisis different? Attitudes towards EU fiscal transfers in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic
Haverland, M. (Creator), van der Veer, R. (Creator) & Onderco, M. (Creator), 2022
DOI: 10.25384/sage.20300535.v1, https://sage.figshare.com/articles/dataset/sj-Rmd-2-eup-10_1177_14651165221112988_-_Supplemental_material_for_Is_this_crisis_different_Attitudes_towards_EU_fiscal_transfers_in_the_wake_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic/20300535/1
Dataset
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Replication Data for: "Ideology and the Red Button: How Ideology Shapes Nuclear Weapons Use Preferences in Europe"
Onderco, M. (Creator), Etienne, T. (Creator) & Smetana, M. (Creator), 2023
DOI: 10.7910/dvn/ltixey, https://dataverse.harvard.edu/citation?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/LTIXEY
Dataset
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From Moscow With a Mushroom Cloud? Russian Public Attitudes to the Use of Nuclear Weapons in a Conflict With NATO
Smetana, M. (Creator) & Onderco, M. (Creator), 2022
DOI: 10.25384/sage.c.6143507.v1, https://sage.figshare.com/collections/From_Moscow_With_a_Mushroom_Cloud_Russian_Public_Attitudes_to_the_Use_of_Nuclear_Weapons_in_a_Conflict_With_NATO/6143507/1
Dataset
Activities
- 8 Oral presentation
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Networks in nuclear diplomacy in Global South
Onderco, M. (Speaker)
26 Apr 2017Activity: Talk or presentation › Oral presentation › Academic
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Why nuclear ban treaty is a bad idea
Onderco, M. (Speaker)
14 Jan 2017Activity: Talk or presentation › Oral presentation › Academic
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Global South and Iran’s Nuclear Program
Onderco, M. (Speaker)
31 May 2016Activity: Talk or presentation › Oral presentation › Academic
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How much damage did the crises make?
Onderco, M. (Speaker)
31 Mar 2016Activity: Talk or presentation › Oral presentation › Academic
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What can we learn from the Iranian nuclear crisis?
Onderco, M. (Speaker)
24 Mar 2015Activity: Talk or presentation › Oral presentation › Academic