A 4-gene prognostic index for enhancing acute myeloid leukaemia survival prediction

Despite advancements in utilizing genetic markers to enhance acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) outcome prediction, significant disease heterogeneity persists, hindering clinical management. To refine survival predictions, we assessed the transcriptome of non-acute promyelocytic leukaemia chemotherapy-treated AML patients from five cohorts (n = 975). This led to the identification of a 4-gene prognostic index (4-PI) comprising CYP2E1, DHCR7, IL2RA and SQLE. The 4-PI effectively stratified patients into risk categories, with the high 4-PI group exhibiting TP53 mutations and cholesterol biosynthesis signatures. Single-cell RNA sequencing revealed enrichment for leukaemia stem cell signatures in high 4-PI cells. Validation across three cohorts (n = 671), including one with childhood AML, demonstrated the reproducibility and clinical utility of the 4-PI, even using cost-effective techniques like real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Comparative analysis with 56 established prognostic indexes revealed the superior performance of the 4-PI, highlighting its potential to enhance AML risk stratification. Finally, the 4-PI demonstrated to be potential marker to reclassified patients from the intermediate ELN2017 category to the adverse category. In conclusion, the 4-PI emerges as a robust and straightforward prognostic tool to improve survival prediction in AML patients.