A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime

Amy E. Nivette; Renee Zahnow; Raul Aguilar; Andri Ahven; Shai Amram; Barak Ariel; María José Arosemena Burbano; Roberta Astolfi; Dirk Baier; Hyung Min Bark; Joris E.H. Beijers; Marcelo Bergman; Gregory Breetzke; I. Alberto Concha-Eastman; Sophie Curtis-Ham; Ryan Davenport; Carlos Díaz; Diego Fleitas; Manne Gerell; Kwang Ho Jang; Juha Kääriäinen; Tapio Lappi-Seppälä; Woon Sik Lim; Rosa Loureiro Revilla; Lorraine Mazerolle; Gorazd Meško; Noemí Pereda; Maria F.T. Peres; Rubén Poblete-Cazenave; Simon Rose; Robert Svensson; Nico Trajtenberg; Tanja van der Lippe; Joran Veldkamp; Carlos J.Vilalta Perdomo; Manuel P. Eisner

doi:10.1038/s41562-021-01139-z

A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime

Amy E. Nivette^*, Renee Zahnow, Raul Aguilar, Andri Ahven, Shai Amram, Barak Ariel, María José Arosemena Burbano, Roberta Astolfi, Dirk Baier, Hyung Min Bark, Joris E.H. Beijers, Marcelo Bergman, Gregory Breetzke, I. Alberto Concha-Eastman, Sophie Curtis-Ham, Ryan Davenport, Carlos Díaz, Diego Fleitas, Manne Gerell, Kwang Ho JangJuha Kääriäinen, Tapio Lappi-Seppälä, Woon Sik Lim, Rosa Loureiro Revilla, Lorraine Mazerolle, Gorazd Meško, Noemí Pereda, Maria F.T. Peres, Rubén Poblete-Cazenave, Simon Rose, Robert Svensson, Nico Trajtenberg, Tanja van der Lippe, Joran Veldkamp, Carlos J.Vilalta Perdomo, Manuel P. Eisner

^*Corresponding author for this work

Economics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

141 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The stay-at-home restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 led to unparalleled sudden change in daily life, but it is unclear how they affected urban crime globally. We collected data on daily counts of crime in 27 cities across 23 countries in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. We conducted interrupted time series analyses to assess the impact of stay-at-home restrictions on different types of crime in each city. Our findings show that the stay-at-home policies were associated with a considerable drop in urban crime, but with substantial variation across cities and types of crime. Meta-regression results showed that more stringent restrictions over movement in public space were predictive of larger declines in crime.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	868-877
Number of pages	10
Journal	Nature Human Behaviour
Volume	5
Issue number	7
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01139-z
Publication status	Published - Jul 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The authors thank M. Ryn for assistance with coordinating data collection, and S. Castello for assistance with organization and coordination between collaborators. The research in this paper is financially supported by the Utrecht University Faculty of Social and Behavioural Sciences COVID-19 Fund. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s).

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1038/s41562-021-01139-z

Cite this

Nivette, A. E., Zahnow, R., Aguilar, R., Ahven, A., Amram, S., Ariel, B., Burbano, M. J. A., Astolfi, R., Baier, D., Bark, H. M., Beijers, J. E. H., Bergman, M., Breetzke, G., Concha-Eastman, I. A., Curtis-Ham, S., Davenport, R., Díaz, C., Fleitas, D., Gerell, M., ... Eisner, M. P. (2021). A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime. Nature Human Behaviour, 5(7), 868-877. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01139-z

@article{8422edd696734d68b001f8a9fa6e859e,

title = "A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime",

abstract = "The stay-at-home restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 led to unparalleled sudden change in daily life, but it is unclear how they affected urban crime globally. We collected data on daily counts of crime in 27 cities across 23 countries in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. We conducted interrupted time series analyses to assess the impact of stay-at-home restrictions on different types of crime in each city. Our findings show that the stay-at-home policies were associated with a considerable drop in urban crime, but with substantial variation across cities and types of crime. Meta-regression results showed that more stringent restrictions over movement in public space were predictive of larger declines in crime.",

author = "Nivette, {Amy E.} and Renee Zahnow and Raul Aguilar and Andri Ahven and Shai Amram and Barak Ariel and Burbano, {Mar{\'i}a Jos{\'e} Arosemena} and Roberta Astolfi and Dirk Baier and Bark, {Hyung Min} and Beijers, {Joris E.H.} and Marcelo Bergman and Gregory Breetzke and Concha-Eastman, {I. Alberto} and Sophie Curtis-Ham and Ryan Davenport and Carlos D{\'i}az and Diego Fleitas and Manne Gerell and Jang, {Kwang Ho} and Juha K{\"a}{\"a}ri{\"a}inen and Tapio Lappi-Sepp{\"a}l{\"a} and Lim, {Woon Sik} and Revilla, {Rosa Loureiro} and Lorraine Mazerolle and Gorazd Me{\v s}ko and Noem{\'i} Pereda and Peres, {Maria F.T.} and Rub{\'e}n Poblete-Cazenave and Simon Rose and Robert Svensson and Nico Trajtenberg and {van der Lippe}, Tanja and Joran Veldkamp and Perdomo, {Carlos J.Vilalta} and Eisner, {Manuel P.}",

note = "Funding Information: The authors thank M. Ryn for assistance with coordinating data collection, and S. Castello for assistance with organization and coordination between collaborators. The research in this paper is financially supported by the Utrecht University Faculty of Social and Behavioural Sciences COVID-19 Fund. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021, The Author(s).",

year = "2021",

month = jul,

doi = "10.1038/s41562-021-01139-z",

language = "English",

volume = "5",

pages = "868--877",

journal = "Nature Human Behaviour",

issn = "2397-3374",

publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",

number = "7",

}

Nivette, AE, Zahnow, R, Aguilar, R, Ahven, A, Amram, S, Ariel, B, Burbano, MJA, Astolfi, R, Baier, D, Bark, HM, Beijers, JEH, Bergman, M, Breetzke, G, Concha-Eastman, IA, Curtis-Ham, S, Davenport, R, Díaz, C, Fleitas, D, Gerell, M, Jang, KH, Kääriäinen, J, Lappi-Seppälä, T, Lim, WS, Revilla, RL, Mazerolle, L, Meško, G, Pereda, N, Peres, MFT, Poblete-Cazenave, R, Rose, S, Svensson, R, Trajtenberg, N, van der Lippe, T, Veldkamp, J, Perdomo, CJV & Eisner, MP 2021, 'A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime', Nature Human Behaviour, vol. 5, no. 7, pp. 868-877. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01139-z

TY - JOUR

T1 - A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime

AU - Nivette, Amy E.

AU - Zahnow, Renee

AU - Aguilar, Raul

AU - Ahven, Andri

AU - Amram, Shai

AU - Ariel, Barak

AU - Burbano, María José Arosemena

AU - Astolfi, Roberta

AU - Baier, Dirk

AU - Bark, Hyung Min

AU - Beijers, Joris E.H.

AU - Bergman, Marcelo

AU - Breetzke, Gregory

AU - Concha-Eastman, I. Alberto

AU - Curtis-Ham, Sophie

AU - Davenport, Ryan

AU - Díaz, Carlos

AU - Fleitas, Diego

AU - Gerell, Manne

AU - Jang, Kwang Ho

AU - Kääriäinen, Juha

AU - Lappi-Seppälä, Tapio

AU - Lim, Woon Sik

AU - Revilla, Rosa Loureiro

AU - Mazerolle, Lorraine

AU - Meško, Gorazd

AU - Pereda, Noemí

AU - Peres, Maria F.T.

AU - Poblete-Cazenave, Rubén

AU - Rose, Simon

AU - Svensson, Robert

AU - Trajtenberg, Nico

AU - van der Lippe, Tanja

AU - Veldkamp, Joran

AU - Perdomo, Carlos J.Vilalta

AU - Eisner, Manuel P.

N1 - Funding Information: The authors thank M. Ryn for assistance with coordinating data collection, and S. Castello for assistance with organization and coordination between collaborators. The research in this paper is financially supported by the Utrecht University Faculty of Social and Behavioural Sciences COVID-19 Fund. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript. Publisher Copyright: © 2021, The Author(s).

PY - 2021/7

Y1 - 2021/7

N2 - The stay-at-home restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 led to unparalleled sudden change in daily life, but it is unclear how they affected urban crime globally. We collected data on daily counts of crime in 27 cities across 23 countries in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. We conducted interrupted time series analyses to assess the impact of stay-at-home restrictions on different types of crime in each city. Our findings show that the stay-at-home policies were associated with a considerable drop in urban crime, but with substantial variation across cities and types of crime. Meta-regression results showed that more stringent restrictions over movement in public space were predictive of larger declines in crime.

AB - The stay-at-home restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 led to unparalleled sudden change in daily life, but it is unclear how they affected urban crime globally. We collected data on daily counts of crime in 27 cities across 23 countries in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. We conducted interrupted time series analyses to assess the impact of stay-at-home restrictions on different types of crime in each city. Our findings show that the stay-at-home policies were associated with a considerable drop in urban crime, but with substantial variation across cities and types of crime. Meta-regression results showed that more stringent restrictions over movement in public space were predictive of larger declines in crime.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85107290636&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1038/s41562-021-01139-z

DO - 10.1038/s41562-021-01139-z

M3 - Article

C2 - 34079096

AN - SCOPUS:85107290636

SN - 2397-3374

VL - 5

SP - 868

EP - 877

JO - Nature Human Behaviour

JF - Nature Human Behaviour

IS - 7

ER -

A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime

Abstract

Bibliographical note

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this