A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime

Amy E. Nivette; Renee Zahnow; Raul Aguilar; Andri Ahven; Shai Amram; Barak Ariel; María José Arosemena Burbano; Roberta Astolfi; Dirk Baier; Hyung Min Bark; Joris E.H. Beijers; Marcelo Bergman; Gregory Breetzke; I. Alberto Concha-Eastman; Sophie Curtis-Ham; Ryan Davenport; Carlos Díaz; Diego Fleitas; Manne Gerell; Kwang Ho Jang; Juha Kääriäinen; Tapio Lappi-Seppälä; Woon Sik Lim; Rosa Loureiro Revilla; Lorraine Mazerolle; Gorazd Meško; Noemí Pereda; Maria F.T. Peres; Rubén Poblete-Cazenave; Simon Rose; Robert Svensson; Nico Trajtenberg; Tanja van der Lippe; Joran Veldkamp; Carlos J.Vilalta Perdomo; Manuel P. Eisner

doi:10.1038/s41562-021-01139-z

A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime

Amy E. Nivette^*
, Renee Zahnow
, Raul Aguilar
, Andri Ahven
, Shai Amram
, Barak Ariel
, María José Arosemena Burbano
, Roberta Astolfi
, Dirk Baier
, Hyung Min Bark
, Joris E.H. Beijers
, Marcelo Bergman
, Gregory Breetzke
, I. Alberto Concha-Eastman
, Sophie Curtis-Ham
, Ryan Davenport
, Carlos Díaz
, Diego Fleitas
, Manne Gerell
, Kwang Ho Jang

Juha Kääriäinen, Tapio Lappi-Seppälä, Woon Sik Lim, Rosa Loureiro Revilla, Lorraine Mazerolle, Gorazd Meško, Noemí Pereda, Maria F.T. Peres, Rubén Poblete-Cazenave, Simon Rose, Robert Svensson, Nico Trajtenberg, Tanja van der Lippe, Joran Veldkamp, Carlos J.Vilalta Perdomo, Manuel P. Eisner

^*Corresponding author for this work

Economics

Utrecht University
Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement (NSCR)
University of Queensland
Catalan Police
Ministry of Justice
Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Institute of Criminology
Universidade de São Paulo
Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) Zürich
Korean Institute of Criminology
Universidad Nacional de Tres de Febrero
University of Pretoria
Secretariat of Health
New Zealand Police
University College London
London Metropolitan Police
Universidad Católica del Uruguay
Malmö University
Police Science Institute
University of Helsinki
University of Maribor
University of Barcelona
Cardiff University
Center for Research in Geospatial Information Sciences (CentroGeo)
University of Zurich

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

210 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The stay-at-home restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 led to unparalleled sudden change in daily life, but it is unclear how they affected urban crime globally. We collected data on daily counts of crime in 27 cities across 23 countries in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. We conducted interrupted time series analyses to assess the impact of stay-at-home restrictions on different types of crime in each city. Our findings show that the stay-at-home policies were associated with a considerable drop in urban crime, but with substantial variation across cities and types of crime. Meta-regression results showed that more stringent restrictions over movement in public space were predictive of larger declines in crime.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	868-877
Number of pages	10
Journal	Nature Human Behaviour
Volume	5
Issue number	7
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01139-z
Publication status	Published - Jul 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The authors thank M. Ryn for assistance with coordinating data collection, and S. Castello for assistance with organization and coordination between collaborators. The research in this paper is financially supported by the Utrecht University Faculty of Social and Behavioural Sciences COVID-19 Fund. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s).

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 16 Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

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10.1038/s41562-021-01139-z

Cite this

Nivette, A. E., Zahnow, R., Aguilar, R., Ahven, A., Amram, S., Ariel, B., Burbano, M. J. A., Astolfi, R., Baier, D., Bark, H. M., Beijers, J. E. H., Bergman, M., Breetzke, G., Concha-Eastman, I. A., Curtis-Ham, S., Davenport, R., Díaz, C., Fleitas, D., Gerell, M., ... Eisner, M. P. (2021). A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime. Nature Human Behaviour, 5(7), 868-877. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01139-z

@article{8422edd696734d68b001f8a9fa6e859e,

title = "A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime",

abstract = "The stay-at-home restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 led to unparalleled sudden change in daily life, but it is unclear how they affected urban crime globally. We collected data on daily counts of crime in 27 cities across 23 countries in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. We conducted interrupted time series analyses to assess the impact of stay-at-home restrictions on different types of crime in each city. Our findings show that the stay-at-home policies were associated with a considerable drop in urban crime, but with substantial variation across cities and types of crime. Meta-regression results showed that more stringent restrictions over movement in public space were predictive of larger declines in crime.",

author = "Nivette, \{Amy E.\} and Renee Zahnow and Raul Aguilar and Andri Ahven and Shai Amram and Barak Ariel and Burbano, \{Mar{\'i}a Jos{\'e} Arosemena\} and Roberta Astolfi and Dirk Baier and Bark, \{Hyung Min\} and Beijers, \{Joris E.H.\} and Marcelo Bergman and Gregory Breetzke and Concha-Eastman, \{I. Alberto\} and Sophie Curtis-Ham and Ryan Davenport and Carlos D{\'i}az and Diego Fleitas and Manne Gerell and Jang, \{Kwang Ho\} and Juha K{\"a}{\"a}ri{\"a}inen and Tapio Lappi-Sepp{\"a}l{\"a} and Lim, \{Woon Sik\} and Revilla, \{Rosa Loureiro\} and Lorraine Mazerolle and Gorazd Me{\v s}ko and Noem{\'i} Pereda and Peres, \{Maria F.T.\} and Rub{\'e}n Poblete-Cazenave and Simon Rose and Robert Svensson and Nico Trajtenberg and \{van der Lippe\}, Tanja and Joran Veldkamp and Perdomo, \{Carlos J.Vilalta\} and Eisner, \{Manuel P.\}",

note = "Funding Information: The authors thank M. Ryn for assistance with coordinating data collection, and S. Castello for assistance with organization and coordination between collaborators. The research in this paper is financially supported by the Utrecht University Faculty of Social and Behavioural Sciences COVID-19 Fund. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021, The Author(s).",

year = "2021",

month = jul,

doi = "10.1038/s41562-021-01139-z",

language = "English",

volume = "5",

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Nivette, AE, Zahnow, R, Aguilar, R, Ahven, A, Amram, S, Ariel, B, Burbano, MJA, Astolfi, R, Baier, D, Bark, HM, Beijers, JEH, Bergman, M, Breetzke, G, Concha-Eastman, IA, Curtis-Ham, S, Davenport, R, Díaz, C, Fleitas, D, Gerell, M, Jang, KH, Kääriäinen, J, Lappi-Seppälä, T, Lim, WS, Revilla, RL, Mazerolle, L, Meško, G, Pereda, N, Peres, MFT, Poblete-Cazenave, R, Rose, S, Svensson, R, Trajtenberg, N, van der Lippe, T, Veldkamp, J, Perdomo, CJV & Eisner, MP 2021, 'A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime', Nature Human Behaviour, vol. 5, no. 7, pp. 868-877. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01139-z

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AU - Perdomo, Carlos J.Vilalta

AU - Eisner, Manuel P.

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A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime

Abstract

Bibliographical note

UN SDGs

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