A Methodological Perspective on Genetic Risk Prediction Studies in Type 2 Diabetes: Recommendations for Future Research

Fueled by the successes of genome-wide association studies, numerous studies have investigated the predictive ability of genetic risk models in type 2 diabetes. In this paper, we review these studies from a methodological perspective, focusing on the variables included in the risk models as well as the study designs and populations investigated. We argue and show that differences in study design and characteristics of the study population have an impact on the observed predictive ability of risk models. This observation emphasizes that genetic risk prediction studies should be conducted in those populations in which the prediction models will ultimately be applied, if proven useful. Of all genetic risk prediction studies to date, only a few were conducted in populations that might be relevant for targeting preventive interventions.