Age-seroprevalence curves for the multi-strain structure of influenza A virus

Dao Nguyen Vinh, Nguyen Thi Duy Nhat, Erwin de Bruin, Nguyen Ha Thao Vy, Tran Thi Nhu Thao, Huynh Thi Phuong, Pham Hong Anh, Stacy Todd, Tran Minh Quan, Nguyen Thi Le Thanh, Nguyen Thi Nam Lien, Nguyen Thi Hong Ha, Tran Thi Kim Hong, Pham Quang Thai, Marc Choisy, Tran Dang Nguyen, Cameron P. Simmons, Guy E. Thwaites, Hannah E. Clapham, Nguyen Van Vinh ChauMarion Koopmans, Maciej F. Boni*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

7 Citations (Scopus)
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The relationship between age and seroprevalence can be used to estimate the annual attack rate of an infectious disease. For pathogens with multiple serologically distinct strains, there is a need to describe composite exposure to an antigenically variable group of pathogens. In this study, we assay 24,402 general-population serum samples, collected in Vietnam between 2009 to 2015, for antibodies to eleven human influenza A strains. We report that a principal components decomposition of antibody titer data gives the first principal component as an appropriate surrogate for seroprevalence; this results in annual attack rate estimates of 25.6% (95% CI: 24.1% – 27.1%) for subtype H3 and 16.0% (95% CI: 14.7% – 17.3%) for subtype H1. The remaining principal components separate the strains by serological similarity and associate birth cohorts with their particular influenza histories. Our work shows that dimensionality reduction can be used on human antibody profiles to construct an age-seroprevalence relationship for antigenically variable pathogens.

Original languageEnglish
Article number6680
JournalNature Communications
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 18 Nov 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This work was funded by the Wellcome Trust Grant 089276/B/09/7 (D.N.V., N.T.D.T., P.H.A., G.E.T.) a Wellcome Trust Sir Henry Dale Fellowship and Enhancement Award (M.F.B., N.H.T.V., T.T.N.T., H.T.P., P.H.A., N.T.L.T., H.E.C.) Wellcome Trust Grant 097465/B/11/Z (S.T.) and by a British Medical Association HC Roscoe Award (2011–2014). C.P.S. is funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia. M.K. and E.d.B. are funded by Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, Agriculture, and Innovation, Castellum Project.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s).


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