Bevacizumab for Metastatic Colorectal Cancer with Chromosomal Instability: Cost-Effectiveness Analysis for a Novel Precision Treatment Approach in Germany, Ireland and Spain

Objectives: Bevacizumab was approved for first-line treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) in 2004. However, adding bevacizumab to treatment consistently fails to be cost-effective owing to modest response rates. Recently, the European Commission (EC) funded ANGIOPREDICT consortium (www.angiopredict.com) identified a link between bevacizumab treatment response and intermediate-to-high chromosomal instability (CIN) in mCRC. Thus, the objective of the current study was to compare the cost-effectiveness of adding bevacizumab with first-line chemotherapy in the bevacizumab responsive CIN subtype across three European countries (Germany, Ireland and Spain) with varying costs of care and reimbursement policies. Methods: We developed an open-source health economic model to estimate cost-effectiveness. The ANGIOPREDICT cohort informed progression risks and cause-specific mortality. Health utilities and adverse events probabilities were obtained from the literature. Costs were derived from surveys of collaborating consortium hospitals in Germany, Ireland, and Spain that participated in the recently completed EC funded COLOSSUS translational study (ANGIOPREDICT successor initiative) and the literature. Sensitivity analyses included individual and simultaneous variation of input parameters from a priori defined distributions. Results: Bevacizumab was not cost effective even at willingness–to-pay (WTP) thresholds that are appreciably higher than those considered realistic. The highest incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was in Germany at €241,188 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY), while the lowest was in Ireland at €180,477 per QALY. All deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses demonstrated that these results were robust. Conclusions: Even for patients with mCRC manifesting improved outcomes, adding bevacizumab to first-line chemotherapy is invariably not cost-effective in any of the countries examined. Variability in pricing, healthcare costs and WTP thresholds across countries did not commute this result.