TY - JOUR
T1 - CA-125 Early Dynamics to Predict Overall Survival in Women with Newly Diagnosed Advanced Ovarian Cancer Based on Meta-Analysis Data
AU - Karamouza, Eleni
AU - Glasspool, Rosalind M.
AU - Kelly, Caroline
AU - Lewsley, Liz Anne
AU - Carty, Karen
AU - Kristensen, Gunnar B.
AU - Ethier, Josee Lyne
AU - Kagimura, Tatsuo
AU - Yanaihara, Nozomu
AU - Cecere, Sabrina Chiara
AU - You, Benoit
AU - Boere, Ingrid A.
AU - Pujade-Lauraine, Eric
AU - Ray-Coquard, Isabelle
AU - Proust-Lima, Cécile
AU - Paoletti, Xavier
N1 - Funding Information:
This study was partly supported by grant PHRC-K 2017 ‘PHRC-K 17–187’ from the Programme Hospitalier de Recherche Clinique en Cancérologie, funded by the French Ministry of Health and the French Ligue Against Cancer.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 by the authors.
PY - 2023/3/17
Y1 - 2023/3/17
N2 - (1) Background: Cancer antigen 125 (CA-125) is a protein produced by ovarian cancer cells that is used for patients’ monitoring. However, the best ways to analyze its decline and prognostic role are poorly quantified. (2) Methods: We leveraged individual patient data from the Gynecologic Cancer Intergroup (GCIG) meta-analysis (N = 5573) to compare different approaches summarizing the early trajectory of CA-125 before the prediction time (called the landmark time) at 3 or 6 months after treatment initiation in order to predict overall survival. These summaries included observed and estimated measures obtained by a linear mixed model (LMM). Their performances were evaluated by 10-fold cross-validation with the Brier score and the area under the ROC (AUC). (3) Results: The estimated value and the last observed value at 3 months were the best measures used to predict overall survival, with an AUC of 0.75 CI 95% [0.70; 0.80] at 24 and 36 months and 0.74 [0.69; 0.80] and 0.75 [0.69; 0.80] at 48 months, respectively, considering that CA-125 over 6 months did not improve the AUC, with 0.74 [0.68; 0.78] at 24 months and 0.71 [0.65; 0.76] at 36 and 48 months. (4) Conclusions: A 3-month surveillance provided reliable individual information on overall survival until 48 months for patients receiving first-line chemotherapy.
AB - (1) Background: Cancer antigen 125 (CA-125) is a protein produced by ovarian cancer cells that is used for patients’ monitoring. However, the best ways to analyze its decline and prognostic role are poorly quantified. (2) Methods: We leveraged individual patient data from the Gynecologic Cancer Intergroup (GCIG) meta-analysis (N = 5573) to compare different approaches summarizing the early trajectory of CA-125 before the prediction time (called the landmark time) at 3 or 6 months after treatment initiation in order to predict overall survival. These summaries included observed and estimated measures obtained by a linear mixed model (LMM). Their performances were evaluated by 10-fold cross-validation with the Brier score and the area under the ROC (AUC). (3) Results: The estimated value and the last observed value at 3 months were the best measures used to predict overall survival, with an AUC of 0.75 CI 95% [0.70; 0.80] at 24 and 36 months and 0.74 [0.69; 0.80] and 0.75 [0.69; 0.80] at 48 months, respectively, considering that CA-125 over 6 months did not improve the AUC, with 0.74 [0.68; 0.78] at 24 months and 0.71 [0.65; 0.76] at 36 and 48 months. (4) Conclusions: A 3-month surveillance provided reliable individual information on overall survival until 48 months for patients receiving first-line chemotherapy.
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85151413206
U2 - 10.3390/cancers15061823
DO - 10.3390/cancers15061823
M3 - Article
C2 - 36980708
AN - SCOPUS:85151413206
SN - 2072-6694
VL - 15
JO - Cancers
JF - Cancers
IS - 6
M1 - 1823
ER -
