Clinical Dutch-English Lambert-Eaton Myasthenic Syndrome (LEMS) tumor association prediction score accurately predicts small-cell lung cancer in the LEMS

Purpose: Approximately one half of patients with Lambert-Eaton myasthenic syndrome (LEMS) have small-cell lung carcinomas (SCLC), aggressive tumors with poor prognosis. In view of its profound impact on therapy and survival, we developed and validated a score to identify the presence of SCLC early in the course of LEMS. Patients and Methods: We derived a prediction score for SCLC in LEMS in a nationwide cohort of 107 Dutch patients, and validated it in a similar cohort of 112 British patients. A Dutch-English LEMS Tumor Association Prediction (DELTA-P) score was developed based on multivariate logistic regression. Results: Age at onset, smoking behavior, weight loss, Karnofsky performance status, bulbar involvement, male sexual impotence, and the presence of Sry-like high-mobility group box protein 1 serum antibodies were independent predictors for SCLC in LEMS. A DELTA-P score was derived allocating 1 point for the presence of each of the following items at or within 3 months from onset: age at onset ≥ 50 years, smoking at diagnosis, weight loss ≥ 5%, bulbar involvement, erectile dysfunction, and Karnofsky performance status lower than 70. The area under the curve of the receiver operating curve was 94.4% in the derivation cohort and 94.6% in the validation set. A DELTA-P score of 0 or 1 corresponded to a 0% to 2.6% chance of SCLC, whereas scores of 4, 5, and 6 corresponded to chances of SCLC of 93.5%, 96.6%, and 100%, respectively. Conclusion: The simple clinical DELTA-P score discriminated patients with LEMS with and without SCLC with high accuracy early in the course of LEMS.