Decentralized finance (literacy) today and in 2034: Initial insights from Singapore and beyond

Daniel Liebau

doi:10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101378

Decentralized finance (literacy) today and in 2034: Initial insights from Singapore and beyond

Daniel Liebau^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Finance

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

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Abstract

How will Decentralized Finance transform financial services? Using New Institutional Economics and Dynamic Capabilities Theory, I analyse survey data from 109 experts using non-parametric methods. Experts span traditional finance, DeFi industry, and academia. Four insights emerge: adoption expectations rise from negligible to 43% expecting at least high adoption by 2034; experts expect convergence scenarios over disruption, with traditional finance embracing DeFi most likely; back-office transforms before customer-facing functions; strategic competencies eclipse DeFi-sector specific- and technical skills. Financial institutions should prioritize DeFi Literacy. DeFi represents emerging market entry requiring organizational transformation, not just technological implementation. Recent SEC developments are broadly consistent with expert expectations.

Original language	English
Article number	101378
Journal	Emerging Markets Review
Volume	69
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101378
Publication status	Published - Nov 2025

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© 2025

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abstract = "How will Decentralized Finance transform financial services? Using New Institutional Economics and Dynamic Capabilities Theory, I analyse survey data from 109 experts using non-parametric methods. Experts span traditional finance, DeFi industry, and academia. Four insights emerge: adoption expectations rise from negligible to 43\% expecting at least high adoption by 2034; experts expect convergence scenarios over disruption, with traditional finance embracing DeFi most likely; back-office transforms before customer-facing functions; strategic competencies eclipse DeFi-sector specific- and technical skills. Financial institutions should prioritize DeFi Literacy. DeFi represents emerging market entry requiring organizational transformation, not just technological implementation. Recent SEC developments are broadly consistent with expert expectations.",

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Decentralized finance (literacy) today and in 2034: Initial insights from Singapore and beyond

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