Determinants of Enforced Return: A Quantitative Analysis of the Spectrum of (In)voluntariness Among Rejected Asylum Seekers in the Netherlands

In recent decades, scholars documented the rise of enforced return in the Global North and scrutinised the vast infrastructure, international diplomacy and in-country measures that set out to boost these. One such way is by promoting so-called ‘Assisted Voluntary Returns’: programs in which rejected asylum seekers allegedly have ample opportunity to decide on and effectuate return themselves. This article builds upon scholarly critiques of such programs and aims to destabilise the purported binary between ‘voluntary’ and ‘forced’ return. By comparing predictors for ‘voluntary’ return and forced removal outcomes, we provide empirical evidence for the existence of a ‘spectrum of (in)voluntariness’. Centring our empirical analysis on the Netherlands, we use a unique multilevel dataset with data from various governmental agencies and other sources. Our findings indicate a significant overlap in the policy and non-policy determinants for both ‘voluntary’ return and forced removal outcomes. Intergovernmental policy determinants only partially explain forced removal outcomes, whereas age, family composition and the situation in migrants' countries of citizenship are of major importance. These findings, therefore, have significant implications for both academic research into enforced return outcomes and for public policy.