Determinants of refugees’ generalised and institutional trust: evidence from Germany

This paper examines the factors shaping refugees’ institutionalised and generalised trust, focusing on three key influences: (1) pre-arrival migration effects, such as experiences of trauma; (2) asylum procedure effects, including the length and outcome of the process and perceptions of fairness; and (3) post-procedure effects, particularly the context of reception. Using data from the IAB-BAMF-SOEP survey of refugees in Germany, we find that the conditions of the asylum process and the reception context are critical determinants of refugees’ trust. Specifically, while the length of the asylum process and living in shared accommodations negatively affect institutional trust, these impacts are largely mediated by other refugee-specific experiences, such as perceptions of procedural and interactional justice. Receiving a positive asylum decision directly enhances refugees’ trust in German institutions and other people, whereas being trapped in existential limbo severely erodes trust levels. Additionally, refugees subject to residency restrictions exhibit lower institutional and generalised trust levels than those without such limitations. These findings highlight the critical role of short and fair asylum procedures and inclusive reception policies in fostering trust among refugees, with significant implications for improving integration outcomes and social cohesion.