TY - JOUR
T1 - Development and External Validation of a Novel Nomogram to Predict the Probability of Pelvic Lymph-node Metastases in Prostate Cancer Patients Using Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Molecular Imaging with Prostate-specific Membrane Antigen Positron Emission Tomography
AU - Vis, André N.
AU - Meijer, Dennie
AU - Roberts, Matthew J.
AU - Siriwardana, Amila R.
AU - Morton, Andrew
AU - Yaxley, John W.
AU - Samaratunga, Hemamali
AU - Emmett, Louise
AU - van de Ven, Peter M.
AU - Heymans, Martijn W.
AU - Nieuwenhuijzen, Jakko A.
AU - van der Poel, Henk G.
AU - Donswijk, Maarten L.
AU - Boellaard, Thierry N.
AU - Schoots, Ivo G.
AU - Stricker, Phillip
AU - Haynes, Anne Maree
AU - Oprea-Lager, Daniela E.
AU - Coughlin, Geoffrey D.
AU - van Leeuwen, Pim J.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
PY - 2023/12
Y1 - 2023/12
N2 - BACKGROUND: Preoperative assessment of the probability of pelvic lymph-node metastatic disease (pN1) is required to identify patients with prostate cancer (PCa) who are candidates for extended pelvic lymph-node dissection (ePLND). OBJECTIVE: To develop a novel intuitive prognostic nomogram for predicting pathological lymph-node (pN) status in contemporary patients with primary diagnosed localized PCa, using preoperative clinical and histopathological parameters, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) positron emission tomography (PET). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In total, 700 eligible patients who underwent robot-assisted radical prostatectomy and ePLND were included in the model-building cohort. The external validation cohort consisted of 305 surgically treated patients. Logistic regression with backward elimination was used to select variables for the Amsterdam-Brisbane-Sydney nomogram. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Performance of the final model was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration plots, and decision-curve analyses. Models were subsequently validated in an external population. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: The Amsterdam-Brisbane-Sydney nomogram included initial prostate-specific antigen value, MRI T stage, highest biopsy grade group (GG), biopsy technique, percentage of systematic cores with clinically significant PCa (GG ≥2), and lymph-node status on PSMA-PET. The AUC for predicting pN status was 0.81 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.78-0.85) for the final model. On external validation, the Amsterdam-Brisbane-Sydney nomogram showed superior discriminative ability to the Briganti-2017 and Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) nomograms (AUC 0.75 [95% CI 0.69-0.81] vs 0.67 [95% CI 0.61-0.74] and 0.65 [95% CI 0.58-0.72], respectively; p < 0.05), and similar discriminative ability to the Briganti-2019 nomogram (AUC 0.78 [95% CI 0.71-0.86] vs 0.80 [95% CI 0.73-0.86]; p = 0.76). The Amsterdam-Brisbane-Sydney nomogram showed excellent calibration on external validation, with an increased net benefit at a threshold probability of ≥4%. CONCLUSIONS: The validated Amsterdam-Brisbane-Sydney nomogram performs superior to the Briganti-2017 and MSKCC nomograms, and similar to the Briganti-2019 nomogram. Furthermore, it is applicable in all patients with newly diagnosed unfavorable intermediate- and high-risk PCa. PATIENT SUMMARY:We developed and validated the Amsterdam-Brisbane-Sydney nomogram for the prediction of prostate cancer spread to lymph nodes before surgery. This nomogram performs similar or superior to all presently available nomograms.
AB - BACKGROUND: Preoperative assessment of the probability of pelvic lymph-node metastatic disease (pN1) is required to identify patients with prostate cancer (PCa) who are candidates for extended pelvic lymph-node dissection (ePLND). OBJECTIVE: To develop a novel intuitive prognostic nomogram for predicting pathological lymph-node (pN) status in contemporary patients with primary diagnosed localized PCa, using preoperative clinical and histopathological parameters, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) positron emission tomography (PET). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In total, 700 eligible patients who underwent robot-assisted radical prostatectomy and ePLND were included in the model-building cohort. The external validation cohort consisted of 305 surgically treated patients. Logistic regression with backward elimination was used to select variables for the Amsterdam-Brisbane-Sydney nomogram. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Performance of the final model was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration plots, and decision-curve analyses. Models were subsequently validated in an external population. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: The Amsterdam-Brisbane-Sydney nomogram included initial prostate-specific antigen value, MRI T stage, highest biopsy grade group (GG), biopsy technique, percentage of systematic cores with clinically significant PCa (GG ≥2), and lymph-node status on PSMA-PET. The AUC for predicting pN status was 0.81 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.78-0.85) for the final model. On external validation, the Amsterdam-Brisbane-Sydney nomogram showed superior discriminative ability to the Briganti-2017 and Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) nomograms (AUC 0.75 [95% CI 0.69-0.81] vs 0.67 [95% CI 0.61-0.74] and 0.65 [95% CI 0.58-0.72], respectively; p < 0.05), and similar discriminative ability to the Briganti-2019 nomogram (AUC 0.78 [95% CI 0.71-0.86] vs 0.80 [95% CI 0.73-0.86]; p = 0.76). The Amsterdam-Brisbane-Sydney nomogram showed excellent calibration on external validation, with an increased net benefit at a threshold probability of ≥4%. CONCLUSIONS: The validated Amsterdam-Brisbane-Sydney nomogram performs superior to the Briganti-2017 and MSKCC nomograms, and similar to the Briganti-2019 nomogram. Furthermore, it is applicable in all patients with newly diagnosed unfavorable intermediate- and high-risk PCa. PATIENT SUMMARY:We developed and validated the Amsterdam-Brisbane-Sydney nomogram for the prediction of prostate cancer spread to lymph nodes before surgery. This nomogram performs similar or superior to all presently available nomograms.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85166268980&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.euo.2023.03.010
DO - 10.1016/j.euo.2023.03.010
M3 - Article
C2 - 37045707
AN - SCOPUS:85166268980
SN - 2588-9311
VL - 6
SP - 553
EP - 563
JO - European urology oncology
JF - European urology oncology
IS - 6
ER -
