Development of a Prediction Model for the Occurrence of Stenosis or Occlusion after Percutaneous Deep Venous Arterialization

Eline Huizing*, Michiel A. Schreve, Steven Kum, Grigorios Papageorgiou, Jean Paul P.M. de Vries, Gert J. de Borst, Çağdaş Ünlü

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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Percutaneous deep venous arterialization (pDVA) is a promising treatment option in patients with chronic limb-threatening ischemia. Stenosis and occlusions, which are the Achilles’ heel of every revascularization procedure, can be treated when detected early. However, frequent moni-toring after pDVA is required because when stenosis or occlusions develop is unknown. Therefore, patients currently need to visit the hospital every 2 weeks for surveillance, which can be burdensome. Accordingly, we aimed to develop a model that can predict future stenosis or occlusions in patients after pDVA to be able to create tailor-made follow-up protocols. The data set included 343 peak systolic velocity and 335 volume flow measurements of 23 patients. A stenosis or occlusion developed in 17 patients, and 6 patients remained lesion-free. A statistically significant increase in the risk of stenosis or occlusion was found when duplex ultrasound values decreased 20% within 1 month. The prediction model was also able to estimate a patient-specific risk of future stenosis or occlusions. This is promising for the possibility of reducing the frequency of follow-up visits for low-risk patients and increasing the frequency for high-risk patients. These observations are the starting point for individual surveillance programs in post-pDVA patients. Future studies with a larger cohort are necessary for validation of this model.

Original languageEnglish
Article number1008
Issue number6
Publication statusPublished - 31 May 2021

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Publisher Copyright: © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.


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