Early Identification of Successful and Unsuccessful Students in the First Year at the University

Purpose: To investigate how well at an early stage, based on pre and post-enrolment data, students could be identified who become successful and unsuccessful in the first year at the university. Method: Based on pre-and post-enrolment data, 24,976 students of the cohorts 2009-2015 were divided in subgroups. For each subgroup the percentage of successful, delayed, and unsuccessful students at the end of the first year was determined. Results: Based on only the pre-enrolment data, i.e. sex, ethnic background, and type and level of achievement during the final examinations of pre-university education, on the one hand subgroups of students with a 74-82% success rate and a 5-10% dropout rate could be identified. On the other hand, subgroups with only a ≤35% success rate and an almost 50% dropout rate. By adding post-enrolment data, i.e. the achievement of students at the first two exams in the university, subgroups with a ≥90% success rate and a ≤5% dropout rate could be identified, and subgroups with only a ≤10% success rate and a ≥70% dropout rate. Discussion: It is possible to identify successful and unsuccessful students at a very early stage.