Effects of a Red Card on Goal-Scoring in World Cup Football Matches

Jakub Cerven?, Jan van Ours, Martin van Tuijl

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaperAcademic


We examine the effect of the sending-o of a player on the goal-scoring rates
in FIFA World Cup matches in tournaments from 1998 to 2014. We use a hazard rate framework in which the effect of a red card is modeled as a shift in the goal-scoring rate. A red card may harm the team that receives a red card and may be beneficial for their opponent. Indeed, we find that the goal-scoring rate of the sanctioned team goes down, while the goal-scoring rate of the non-sanctioned team goes up.
Original languageUndefined/Unknown
Publication statusPublished - 22 Aug 2016

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