European monetary union, the term structure, and the Lucas critique

In order to evaluate the empirical relevance of the Lucas Critique, we investigate whether the term structure (the relation of the long interest rate to the short interest rate) showed structural change as the deadline for the euro came closer. Our empirical analysis of the term structures (yield curves) in 12 OECD countries uncovers that econometrically estimated behavioural equations for most EMU countries were stable even in the light of the creation of the euro. This finding would seem to defy the Lucas Critique. However, the significant structural instability found for the euro area's core country, Germany, suggests that the Lucas Critique is relevant in the analysis of the impact of the creation (and future extensions) of EMU.