Experts' Adjustment to Model-Based SKU-Level Forecast: Does the Forecast Horizon Matter?

Philip Hans Franses, R (Rianne) Legerstee

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

13 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Experts (managers) may have domain-specific knowledge that is not included in a statistical model and that can improve short-run and long-run forecasts of SKU-level sales data. While one-step-ahead forecasts address the conditional mean of the variable, model-based forecasts for longer horizons have a tendency to convert to the unconditional mean of a time series variable. Analysing a large database concerning pharmaceutical sales forecasts for various products and adjusted by a range of experts, we examine whether the forecast horizon has an impact on what experts do and on how good they are once they adjust model-based forecasts. For this, we use regression-based methods and we obtain five innovative results. First, all horizons experience managerial intervention of forecasts. Second, the horizon that is most relevant to the managers shows greater overweighting of the expert adjustment. Third, for all horizons the expert adjusted forecasts have less accuracy than pure model-based forecasts, with distant horizons having the least deterioration. Fourth, when expert-adjusted forecasts are significantly better, they are best at those distant horizons. Fifth, when expert adjustment is down-weighted, expert forecast accuracy increases.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)537-543
Number of pages7
JournalThe Journal of the Operational Research Society
Volume62
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2011

Research programs

  • EUR ESE 31

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Experts' Adjustment to Model-Based SKU-Level Forecast: Does the Forecast Horizon Matter?'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this