Exploring migration decision-making and agricultural adaptation in the context of climate change: A systematic review

This study presents a novel analysis of migration responses to climate change by agricultural households in middle- and low-income countries. We conduct a systematic review of 81 quantitative and qualitative studies, applying the New Economics of Labor Migration (NELM) theory and insights from the development economics literature to understand the link between access to in situ agricultural adaptation measures and migration choices. Our findings indicate significant variability in this relationship across different scales of farming operations, including large, medium, small, and landless farmers. We also identify several local contextual factors—such as access to credit, social structures, social fractionalization, conflicts, and migrant networks—that intricately influence this association. Our review departs from previous literature by providing a unique theoretical perspective on the diverse evidence surrounding migration and climate change. We propose a conceptual framework to better understand migration responses in less-developed countries and pinpoint policy gaps that limit agricultural households’ ability to adapt to climate change. Finally, we highlight the critical need for future research to examine the role of local contextual factors, including social networks, gender norms, and conflict risks, in shaping migration responses to climate change.