External validation and adaptation of a dynamic prediction model for patients with high-grade extremity soft tissue sarcoma

Anja J. Rueten-Budde*, Veroniek M. van Praag, Michiel A.J. van de Sande, Marta Fiocco, PERSARC study group

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

6 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background and Objectives: A dynamic prediction model for patients with soft tissue sarcoma of the extremities was previously developed to predict updated overall survival probabilities throughout patient follow-up. This study updates and externally validates the dynamic model. Methods: Data from 3826 patients with high-grade extremity soft tissue sarcoma, treated surgically with curative intent were used to update the dynamic PERsonalised SARcoma Care (PERSARC) model. Patients were added to the model development cohort and grade was included in the model. External validation was performed with data from 1111 patients treated at a single tertiary center. Results: Calibration plots show good model calibration. Dynamic C-indices suggest that the model can discriminate between high- and low-risk patients. The dynamic C-indices at 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years after surgery were equal to 0.697, 0.790, 0.822, 0.818, 0.812, and 0.827, respectively. Conclusion: Results from the external validation show that the dynamic PERSARC model is reliable in predicting the probability of surviving an additional 5 years from a specific prediction time point during follow-up. The model combines patient-, treatment-specific and time-dependent variables such as local recurrence and distant metastasis to provide accurate survival predictions throughout follow-up and is available through the PERSARC app.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1050-1056
Number of pages7
JournalJournal of Surgical Oncology
Volume123
Issue number4
Early online date17 Dec 2020
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 15 Mar 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This study has been supported by the Dutch Cancer Society (DCS) – KWF Kankerbestrijding (Grant no. UL2015‐8028). The funding source had no role in the design of this study, execution, analyses, interpretation of the data, report writing, or decision to submit the article for publication.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 The Authors. Journal of Surgical Oncology Published by Wiley Periodicals LLC

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