Forecasting Social Conflicts in Africa Using an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence Model

Gilian van den Hengel, Philip Hans Franses*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)
27 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

We propose to view social conflicts in Africa as having similarities with earthquake occurrences and hence to consider the spatial-temporal Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. The parameters of this highly parameterized model are estimated through simulated annealing. We consider data for 2012 to 2016 to calibrate the model for four African regions separately, and we consider the data for 2017 to evaluate the forecasts. These forecasts concern the amount of future large events as well as their locations. Examples of our findings are that the model predicts a cluster of large events in the Central Africa region, which was not expected based on past events, and that in particular for East Africa it apparently holds that small conflicts can trigger a larger number of conflicts.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)284-308
Number of pages25
JournalForecasting
Volume2
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 11 Aug 2020

Research programs

  • ESE - ECO

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Forecasting Social Conflicts in Africa Using an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence Model'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this