Fracturing the Monolith: Could Military Defections End the Dictatorship in Myanmar?

Terence Lee, Gerard McCarthy^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Academic staff unit

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Abstract

Past episodes of mass uprising and successful transitions from dictatorial rule in Asia and the Middle East and North Africa offer several important lessons for Myanmar. Following weeks and months of popular demonstrations, the fall of presidents Ferdinand Marcos in 1986, Suharto in 1998 and Hosni Mubarak during 2011 Arab Spring, came only after the defection of senior military officers to the people’s cause. The chapter discusses a new political possibility which could be caused by emerging cleavages within and defection of the security forces. As the economic and political fractures in the monolith of Myanmar’s military worsen, the resistance movement is more likely to succeed if it is able to win-over junta softliners who may be open to a different way forward. A chance of an off-ramp depends on whether the democracy movement can offer segments of the security apparatus and current junta collaborators an agreement capable of securing defection.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Myanmar's Changing Political Landscape
Subtitle of host publication	Old and New Struggles
Editors	Makiko Takeda, Chosein Yamahata
Publisher	Springer Nature
Chapter	11
Pages	195-210
Number of pages	15
ISBN (Electronic)	9789811993572
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-9357-2_11
Publication status	Published - 2023

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023.

Access to Document

10.1007/978-981-19-9357-2_11

978-981-19-9357-2_11Final published version, 326 KBLicence: Article 25fa Dutch Copyright Act

Cite this

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abstract = "Past episodes of mass uprising and successful transitions from dictatorial rule in Asia and the Middle East and North Africa offer several important lessons for Myanmar. Following weeks and months of popular demonstrations, the fall of presidents Ferdinand Marcos in 1986, Suharto in 1998 and Hosni Mubarak during 2011 Arab Spring, came only after the defection of senior military officers to the people{\textquoteright}s cause. The chapter discusses a new political possibility which could be caused by emerging cleavages within and defection of the security forces. As the economic and political fractures in the monolith of Myanmar{\textquoteright}s military worsen, the resistance movement is more likely to succeed if it is able to win-over junta softliners who may be open to a different way forward. A chance of an off-ramp depends on whether the democracy movement can offer segments of the security apparatus and current junta collaborators an agreement capable of securing defection.",

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