Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

R Lozano, M Naghavi, K Foreman, S Lim, K Shibuya, V Aboyans, J Abraham, T Adair, R Aggarwal, SY Ahn, M Alvarado, HR Anderson, LM Anderson, KG Andrews, C Atkinson, LM Baddour, S Barker-Collo, DH Bartels, ML Bell, EJ BenjaminD Bennett, K Bhalla, B Bikbov, A Bin Abdulhak, G Birbeck, F Blyth, I Bolliger, SA Boufous, C Bucello, M Burch, P Burney, J Carapetis, HL Chen, D Chou, SS Chugh, Luc Coffeng, SD Colan, S Colquhoun, KE Colson, J Condon, MD Connor, LT Cooper, M Corriere, M Cortinovis, KC de Vaccaro, W Couser, BC Cowie, MH Criqui, M Cross, KC Dabhadkar, N Dahodwala, D De Leo, L Degenhardt, A Delossantos, J Denenberg, DC Des Jarlais, SD Dharmaratne, ER Dorsey, T Driscoll, H Duber, B Ebel, PJ Erwin, P Espindola, M Ezzati, V Feigin, AD Flaxman, MH Forouzanfar, FGR Fowkes, R Franklin, Mirjam Fransen, MK Freeman, SE Gabriel, E Gakidou, F Gaspari, RF Gillum, D Gonzalez-Medina, YA Halasa, D Haring, JE Harrison, R Havmoeller, RJ Hay, B Hoen, PJ Hotez, D Hoy, KH Jacobsen, SL James, R Jasrasaria, S Jayaraman, N Johns, G Karthikeyan, N Kassebaum, A Keren, JP Khoo, LM Knowlton, O Kobusingye, A Koranteng, R Krishnamurthi, M Lipnick, SE Lipshultz, SL Ohno, J Mabweijano, MF MacIntyre, L Mallinger, L March, GB Marks, R Marks, A Matsumori, R Matzopoulos, BM Mayosi, JH McAnulty, MM McDermott, J McGrath, GA Mensah, TR Merriman, C Michaud, M Miller, TR Miller, C Mock, AO Mocumbi, AA Mokdad, A Moran, K Mulholland, MN Nair, L Naldi, KMV Narayan, K Nasseri, P Norman, M O'Donnell, SB Omer, K Ortblad, R Osborne, D Ozgediz, B Pahari, JD Pandian, AP Rivero, RP Padilla, F Perez-Ruiz, N Perico, D Phillips, K Pierce, CA Pope, E Porrini, F Pourmalek, M Raju, D Ranganathan, JT Rehm, DB Rein, G Remuzzi, FP Rivara, T Roberts, FR De Leon, LC Rosenfeld, L Rushton, RL Sacco, JA Salomon, U Sampson, E Sanman, DC Schwebel, M Segui-Gomez, DS Shepard, D Singh, J Singleton, K Sliwa, E Smith, A Steer, JA Taylor, B Thomas, IM Tleyjeh, JA Towbin, T Truelsen, EA Undurraga, N Venketasubramanian, L Vijayakumar, T de Vos, GR Wagner, MR Wang, WZ Wang, K Watt, MA Weinstock, R Weintraub, JD Wilkinson, AD Woolf, S Wulf, PH Yeh, P Yip, A Zabetian, ZJ Zheng, AD Lopez, CJL Murray

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Abstract

Background Reliable and timely information on the leading causes of death in populations, and how these are changing, is a crucial input into health policy debates. In the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), we aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex. Methods We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries. We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death. We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data. For 13 Findings In 2010, there were 52.8 million deaths globally. At the most aggregate level, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes were 24.9% of deaths worldwide in 2010, down from 15.9 million (34.1%) of 46.5 million in 1990. This decrease was largely due to decreases in mortality from diarrhoeal disease (from 2.5 to 1.4 million), lower respiratory infections (from 3.4 to 2.8 million), neonatal disorders (from 3.1 to 2.2 million), measles (from 0.63 to 0.13 million), and tetanus ( Interpretation Population growth, increased average age of the world's population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases. Nevertheless, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes remain the dominant causes of YLLs in sub-Saharan Africa. Overlaid on this general pattern of the epidemiological transition, marked reg
Original languageUndefined/Unknown
Pages (from-to)2095-2128
Number of pages34
JournalLancet (UK)
Volume380
Issue number9859
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2012

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