Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

R Lozano; M Naghavi; K Foreman; S Lim; K Shibuya; V Aboyans; J Abraham; T Adair; R Aggarwal; SY Ahn; M Alvarado; HR Anderson; LM Anderson; KG Andrews; C Atkinson; LM Baddour; S Barker-Collo; DH Bartels; ML Bell; EJ Benjamin; D Bennett; K Bhalla; B Bikbov; A Bin Abdulhak; G Birbeck; F Blyth; I Bolliger; SA Boufous; C Bucello; M Burch; P Burney; J Carapetis; HL Chen; D Chou; SS Chugh; Luc Coffeng; SD Colan; S Colquhoun; KE Colson; J Condon; MD Connor; LT Cooper; M Corriere; M Cortinovis; KC de Vaccaro; W Couser; BC Cowie; MH Criqui; M Cross; KC Dabhadkar; N Dahodwala; D De Leo; L Degenhardt; A Delossantos; J Denenberg; DC Des Jarlais; SD Dharmaratne; ER Dorsey; T Driscoll; H Duber; B Ebel; PJ Erwin; P Espindola; M Ezzati; V Feigin; AD Flaxman; MH Forouzanfar; FGR Fowkes; R Franklin; Mirjam Fransen; MK Freeman; SE Gabriel; E Gakidou; F Gaspari; RF Gillum; D Gonzalez-Medina; YA Halasa; D Haring; JE Harrison; R Havmoeller; RJ Hay; B Hoen; PJ Hotez; D Hoy; KH Jacobsen; SL James; R Jasrasaria; S Jayaraman; N Johns; G Karthikeyan; N Kassebaum; A Keren; JP Khoo; LM Knowlton; O Kobusingye; A Koranteng; R Krishnamurthi; M Lipnick; SE Lipshultz; SL Ohno; J Mabweijano; MF MacIntyre; L Mallinger; L March; GB Marks; R Marks; A Matsumori; R Matzopoulos; BM Mayosi; JH McAnulty; MM McDermott; J McGrath; GA Mensah; TR Merriman; C Michaud; M Miller; TR Miller; C Mock; AO Mocumbi; AA Mokdad; A Moran; K Mulholland; MN Nair; L Naldi; KMV Narayan; K Nasseri; P Norman; M O'Donnell; SB Omer; K Ortblad; R Osborne; D Ozgediz; B Pahari; JD Pandian; AP Rivero; RP Padilla; F Perez-Ruiz; N Perico; D Phillips; K Pierce; CA Pope; E Porrini; F Pourmalek; M Raju; D Ranganathan; JT Rehm; DB Rein; G Remuzzi; FP Rivara; T Roberts; FR De Leon; LC Rosenfeld; L Rushton; RL Sacco; JA Salomon; U Sampson; E Sanman; DC Schwebel; M Segui-Gomez; DS Shepard; D Singh; J Singleton; K Sliwa; E Smith; A Steer; JA Taylor; B Thomas; IM Tleyjeh; JA Towbin; T Truelsen; EA Undurraga; N Venketasubramanian; L Vijayakumar; T de Vos; GR Wagner; MR Wang; WZ Wang; K Watt; MA Weinstock; R Weintraub; JD Wilkinson; AD Woolf; S Wulf; PH Yeh; P Yip; A Zabetian; ZJ Zheng; AD Lopez; CJL Murray

doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61728-0

Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

R Lozano, M Naghavi, K Foreman, S Lim, K Shibuya, V Aboyans, J Abraham, T Adair, R Aggarwal, SY Ahn, M Alvarado, HR Anderson, LM Anderson, KG Andrews, C Atkinson, LM Baddour, S Barker-Collo, DH Bartels, ML Bell, EJ BenjaminD Bennett, K Bhalla, B Bikbov, A Bin Abdulhak, G Birbeck, F Blyth, I Bolliger, SA Boufous, C Bucello, M Burch, P Burney, J Carapetis, HL Chen, D Chou, SS Chugh, Luc Coffeng, SD Colan, S Colquhoun, KE Colson, J Condon, MD Connor, LT Cooper, M Corriere, M Cortinovis, KC de Vaccaro, W Couser, BC Cowie, MH Criqui, M Cross, KC Dabhadkar, N Dahodwala, D De Leo, L Degenhardt, A Delossantos, J Denenberg, DC Des Jarlais, SD Dharmaratne, ER Dorsey, T Driscoll, H Duber, B Ebel, PJ Erwin, P Espindola, M Ezzati, V Feigin, AD Flaxman, MH Forouzanfar, FGR Fowkes, R Franklin, Mirjam Fransen, MK Freeman, SE Gabriel, E Gakidou, F Gaspari, RF Gillum, D Gonzalez-Medina, YA Halasa, D Haring, JE Harrison, R Havmoeller, RJ Hay, B Hoen, PJ Hotez, D Hoy, KH Jacobsen, SL James, R Jasrasaria, S Jayaraman, N Johns, G Karthikeyan, N Kassebaum, A Keren, JP Khoo, LM Knowlton, O Kobusingye, A Koranteng, R Krishnamurthi, M Lipnick, SE Lipshultz, SL Ohno, J Mabweijano, MF MacIntyre, L Mallinger, L March, GB Marks, R Marks, A Matsumori, R Matzopoulos, BM Mayosi, JH McAnulty, MM McDermott, J McGrath, GA Mensah, TR Merriman, C Michaud, M Miller, TR Miller, C Mock, AO Mocumbi, AA Mokdad, A Moran, K Mulholland, MN Nair, L Naldi, KMV Narayan, K Nasseri, P Norman, M O'Donnell, SB Omer, K Ortblad, R Osborne, D Ozgediz, B Pahari, JD Pandian, AP Rivero, RP Padilla, F Perez-Ruiz, N Perico, D Phillips, K Pierce, CA Pope, E Porrini, F Pourmalek, M Raju, D Ranganathan, JT Rehm, DB Rein, G Remuzzi, FP Rivara, T Roberts, FR De Leon, LC Rosenfeld, L Rushton, RL Sacco, JA Salomon, U Sampson, E Sanman, DC Schwebel, M Segui-Gomez, DS Shepard, D Singh, J Singleton, K Sliwa, E Smith, A Steer, JA Taylor, B Thomas, IM Tleyjeh, JA Towbin, T Truelsen, EA Undurraga, N Venketasubramanian, L Vijayakumar, T de Vos, GR Wagner, MR Wang, WZ Wang, K Watt, MA Weinstock, R Weintraub, JD Wilkinson, AD Woolf, S Wulf, PH Yeh, P Yip, A Zabetian, ZJ Zheng, AD Lopez, CJL Murray

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

9842 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background Reliable and timely information on the leading causes of death in populations, and how these are changing, is a crucial input into health policy debates. In the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), we aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex. Methods We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries. We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death. We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data. For 13 Findings In 2010, there were 52.8 million deaths globally. At the most aggregate level, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes were 24.9% of deaths worldwide in 2010, down from 15.9 million (34.1%) of 46.5 million in 1990. This decrease was largely due to decreases in mortality from diarrhoeal disease (from 2.5 to 1.4 million), lower respiratory infections (from 3.4 to 2.8 million), neonatal disorders (from 3.1 to 2.2 million), measles (from 0.63 to 0.13 million), and tetanus ( Interpretation Population growth, increased average age of the world's population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases. Nevertheless, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes remain the dominant causes of YLLs in sub-Saharan Africa. Overlaid on this general pattern of the epidemiological transition, marked reg

Original language	Undefined/Unknown
Pages (from-to)	2095-2128
Number of pages	34
Journal	Lancet (UK)
Volume	380
Issue number	9859
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61728-0
Publication status	Published - 2012

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61728-0

http://hdl.handle.net/1765/60414

Cite this

Lozano, R., Naghavi, M., Foreman, K., Lim, S., Shibuya, K., Aboyans, V., Abraham, J., Adair, T., Aggarwal, R., Ahn, SY., Alvarado, M., Anderson, HR., Anderson, LM., Andrews, KG., Atkinson, C., Baddour, LM., Barker-Collo, S., Bartels, DH., Bell, ML., ... Murray, CJL. (2012). Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Lancet (UK), 380(9859), 2095-2128. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61728-0

@article{a5ef8b98893a4baeb68593c9162f6e4e,

title = "Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010",

abstract = "Background Reliable and timely information on the leading causes of death in populations, and how these are changing, is a crucial input into health policy debates. In the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), we aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex. Methods We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries. We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death. We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data. For 13 Findings In 2010, there were 52.8 million deaths globally. At the most aggregate level, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes were 24.9% of deaths worldwide in 2010, down from 15.9 million (34.1%) of 46.5 million in 1990. This decrease was largely due to decreases in mortality from diarrhoeal disease (from 2.5 to 1.4 million), lower respiratory infections (from 3.4 to 2.8 million), neonatal disorders (from 3.1 to 2.2 million), measles (from 0.63 to 0.13 million), and tetanus ( Interpretation Population growth, increased average age of the world's population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases. Nevertheless, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes remain the dominant causes of YLLs in sub-Saharan Africa. Overlaid on this general pattern of the epidemiological transition, marked reg",

author = "R Lozano and M Naghavi and K Foreman and S Lim and K Shibuya and V Aboyans and J Abraham and T Adair and R Aggarwal and SY Ahn and M Alvarado and HR Anderson and LM Anderson and KG Andrews and C Atkinson and LM Baddour and S Barker-Collo and DH Bartels and ML Bell and EJ Benjamin and D Bennett and K Bhalla and B Bikbov and {Bin Abdulhak}, A and G Birbeck and F Blyth and I Bolliger and SA Boufous and C Bucello and M Burch and P Burney and J Carapetis and HL Chen and D Chou and SS Chugh and Luc Coffeng and SD Colan and S Colquhoun and KE Colson and J Condon and MD Connor and LT Cooper and M Corriere and M Cortinovis and {de Vaccaro}, KC and W Couser and BC Cowie and MH Criqui and M Cross and KC Dabhadkar and N Dahodwala and {De Leo}, D and L Degenhardt and A Delossantos and J Denenberg and {Des Jarlais}, DC and SD Dharmaratne and ER Dorsey and T Driscoll and H Duber and B Ebel and PJ Erwin and P Espindola and M Ezzati and V Feigin and AD Flaxman and MH Forouzanfar and FGR Fowkes and R Franklin and Mirjam Fransen and MK Freeman and SE Gabriel and E Gakidou and F Gaspari and RF Gillum and D Gonzalez-Medina and YA Halasa and D Haring and JE Harrison and R Havmoeller and RJ Hay and B Hoen and PJ Hotez and D Hoy and KH Jacobsen and SL James and R Jasrasaria and S Jayaraman and N Johns and G Karthikeyan and N Kassebaum and A Keren and JP Khoo and LM Knowlton and O Kobusingye and A Koranteng and R Krishnamurthi and M Lipnick and SE Lipshultz and SL Ohno and J Mabweijano and MF MacIntyre and L Mallinger and L March and GB Marks and R Marks and A Matsumori and R Matzopoulos and BM Mayosi and JH McAnulty and MM McDermott and J McGrath and GA Mensah and TR Merriman and C Michaud and M Miller and TR Miller and C Mock and AO Mocumbi and AA Mokdad and A Moran and K Mulholland and MN Nair and L Naldi and KMV Narayan and K Nasseri and P Norman and M O'Donnell and SB Omer and K Ortblad and R Osborne and D Ozgediz and B Pahari and JD Pandian and AP Rivero and RP Padilla and F Perez-Ruiz and N Perico and D Phillips and K Pierce and CA Pope and E Porrini and F Pourmalek and M Raju and D Ranganathan and JT Rehm and DB Rein and G Remuzzi and FP Rivara and T Roberts and {De Leon}, FR and LC Rosenfeld and L Rushton and RL Sacco and JA Salomon and U Sampson and E Sanman and DC Schwebel and M Segui-Gomez and DS Shepard and D Singh and J Singleton and K Sliwa and E Smith and A Steer and JA Taylor and B Thomas and IM Tleyjeh and JA Towbin and T Truelsen and EA Undurraga and N Venketasubramanian and L Vijayakumar and {de Vos}, T and GR Wagner and MR Wang and WZ Wang and K Watt and MA Weinstock and R Weintraub and JD Wilkinson and AD Woolf and S Wulf and PH Yeh and P Yip and A Zabetian and ZJ Zheng and AD Lopez and CJL Murray",

year = "2012",

doi = "10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61728-0",

language = "Undefined/Unknown",

volume = "380",

pages = "2095--2128",

journal = "The Lancet",

issn = "0140-6736",

publisher = "Elsevier Ltd.",

number = "9859",

}

Lozano, R, Naghavi, M, Foreman, K, Lim, S, Shibuya, K, Aboyans, V, Abraham, J, Adair, T, Aggarwal, R, Ahn, SY, Alvarado, M, Anderson, HR, Anderson, LM, Andrews, KG, Atkinson, C, Baddour, LM, Barker-Collo, S, Bartels, DH, Bell, ML, Benjamin, EJ, Bennett, D, Bhalla, K, Bikbov, B, Bin Abdulhak, A, Birbeck, G, Blyth, F, Bolliger, I, Boufous, SA, Bucello, C, Burch, M, Burney, P, Carapetis, J, Chen, HL, Chou, D, Chugh, SS, Coffeng, L, Colan, SD, Colquhoun, S, Colson, KE, Condon, J, Connor, MD, Cooper, LT, Corriere, M, Cortinovis, M, de Vaccaro, KC, Couser, W, Cowie, BC, Criqui, MH, Cross, M, Dabhadkar, KC, Dahodwala, N, De Leo, D, Degenhardt, L, Delossantos, A, Denenberg, J, Des Jarlais, DC, Dharmaratne, SD, Dorsey, ER, Driscoll, T, Duber, H, Ebel, B, Erwin, PJ, Espindola, P, Ezzati, M, Feigin, V, Flaxman, AD, Forouzanfar, MH, Fowkes, FGR, Franklin, R, Fransen, M, Freeman, MK, Gabriel, SE, Gakidou, E, Gaspari, F, Gillum, RF, Gonzalez-Medina, D, Halasa, YA, Haring, D, Harrison, JE, Havmoeller, R, Hay, RJ, Hoen, B, Hotez, PJ, Hoy, D, Jacobsen, KH, James, SL, Jasrasaria, R, Jayaraman, S, Johns, N, Karthikeyan, G, Kassebaum, N, Keren, A, Khoo, JP, Knowlton, LM, Kobusingye, O, Koranteng, A, Krishnamurthi, R, Lipnick, M, Lipshultz, SE, Ohno, SL, Mabweijano, J, MacIntyre, MF, Mallinger, L, March, L, Marks, GB, Marks, R, Matsumori, A, Matzopoulos, R, Mayosi, BM, McAnulty, JH, McDermott, MM, McGrath, J, Mensah, GA, Merriman, TR, Michaud, C, Miller, M, Miller, TR, Mock, C, Mocumbi, AO, Mokdad, AA, Moran, A, Mulholland, K, Nair, MN, Naldi, L, Narayan, KMV, Nasseri, K, Norman, P, O'Donnell, M, Omer, SB, Ortblad, K, Osborne, R, Ozgediz, D, Pahari, B, Pandian, JD, Rivero, AP, Padilla, RP, Perez-Ruiz, F, Perico, N, Phillips, D, Pierce, K, Pope, CA, Porrini, E, Pourmalek, F, Raju, M, Ranganathan, D, Rehm, JT, Rein, DB, Remuzzi, G, Rivara, FP, Roberts, T, De Leon, FR, Rosenfeld, LC, Rushton, L, Sacco, RL, Salomon, JA, Sampson, U, Sanman, E, Schwebel, DC, Segui-Gomez, M, Shepard, DS, Singh, D, Singleton, J, Sliwa, K, Smith, E, Steer, A, Taylor, JA, Thomas, B, Tleyjeh, IM, Towbin, JA, Truelsen, T, Undurraga, EA, Venketasubramanian, N, Vijayakumar, L, de Vos, T, Wagner, GR, Wang, MR, Wang, WZ, Watt, K, Weinstock, MA, Weintraub, R, Wilkinson, JD, Woolf, AD, Wulf, S, Yeh, PH, Yip, P, Zabetian, A, Zheng, ZJ, Lopez, AD & Murray, CJL 2012, 'Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010', Lancet (UK), vol. 380, no. 9859, pp. 2095-2128. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61728-0

TY - JOUR

T1 - Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

AU - Lozano, R

AU - Naghavi, M

AU - Foreman, K

AU - Lim, S

AU - Shibuya, K

AU - Aboyans, V

AU - Abraham, J

AU - Adair, T

AU - Aggarwal, R

AU - Ahn, SY

AU - Alvarado, M

AU - Anderson, HR

AU - Anderson, LM

AU - Andrews, KG

AU - Atkinson, C

AU - Baddour, LM

AU - Barker-Collo, S

AU - Bartels, DH

AU - Bell, ML

AU - Benjamin, EJ

AU - Bennett, D

AU - Bhalla, K

AU - Bikbov, B

AU - Bin Abdulhak, A

AU - Birbeck, G

AU - Blyth, F

AU - Bolliger, I

AU - Boufous, SA

AU - Bucello, C

AU - Burch, M

AU - Burney, P

AU - Carapetis, J

AU - Chen, HL

AU - Chou, D

AU - Chugh, SS

AU - Coffeng, Luc

AU - Colan, SD

AU - Colquhoun, S

AU - Colson, KE

AU - Condon, J

AU - Connor, MD

AU - Cooper, LT

AU - Corriere, M

AU - Cortinovis, M

AU - de Vaccaro, KC

AU - Couser, W

AU - Cowie, BC

AU - Criqui, MH

AU - Cross, M

AU - Dabhadkar, KC

AU - Dahodwala, N

AU - De Leo, D

AU - Degenhardt, L

AU - Delossantos, A

AU - Denenberg, J

AU - Des Jarlais, DC

AU - Dharmaratne, SD

AU - Dorsey, ER

AU - Driscoll, T

AU - Duber, H

AU - Ebel, B

AU - Erwin, PJ

AU - Espindola, P

AU - Ezzati, M

AU - Feigin, V

AU - Flaxman, AD

AU - Forouzanfar, MH

AU - Fowkes, FGR

AU - Franklin, R

AU - Fransen, Mirjam

AU - Freeman, MK

AU - Gabriel, SE

AU - Gakidou, E

AU - Gaspari, F

AU - Gillum, RF

AU - Gonzalez-Medina, D

AU - Halasa, YA

AU - Haring, D

AU - Harrison, JE

AU - Havmoeller, R

AU - Hay, RJ

AU - Hoen, B

AU - Hotez, PJ

AU - Hoy, D

AU - Jacobsen, KH

AU - James, SL

AU - Jasrasaria, R

AU - Jayaraman, S

AU - Johns, N

AU - Karthikeyan, G

AU - Kassebaum, N

AU - Keren, A

AU - Khoo, JP

AU - Knowlton, LM

AU - Kobusingye, O

AU - Koranteng, A

AU - Krishnamurthi, R

AU - Lipnick, M

AU - Lipshultz, SE

AU - Ohno, SL

AU - Mabweijano, J

AU - MacIntyre, MF

AU - Mallinger, L

AU - March, L

AU - Marks, GB

AU - Marks, R

AU - Matsumori, A

AU - Matzopoulos, R

AU - Mayosi, BM

AU - McAnulty, JH

AU - McDermott, MM

AU - McGrath, J

AU - Mensah, GA

AU - Merriman, TR

AU - Michaud, C

AU - Miller, M

AU - Miller, TR

AU - Mock, C

AU - Mocumbi, AO

AU - Mokdad, AA

AU - Moran, A

AU - Mulholland, K

AU - Nair, MN

AU - Naldi, L

AU - Narayan, KMV

AU - Nasseri, K

AU - Norman, P

AU - O'Donnell, M

AU - Omer, SB

AU - Ortblad, K

AU - Osborne, R

AU - Ozgediz, D

AU - Pahari, B

AU - Pandian, JD

AU - Rivero, AP

AU - Padilla, RP

AU - Perez-Ruiz, F

AU - Perico, N

AU - Phillips, D

AU - Pierce, K

AU - Pope, CA

AU - Porrini, E

AU - Pourmalek, F

AU - Raju, M

AU - Ranganathan, D

AU - Rehm, JT

AU - Rein, DB

AU - Remuzzi, G

AU - Rivara, FP

AU - Roberts, T

AU - De Leon, FR

AU - Rosenfeld, LC

AU - Rushton, L

AU - Sacco, RL

AU - Salomon, JA

AU - Sampson, U

AU - Sanman, E

AU - Schwebel, DC

AU - Segui-Gomez, M

AU - Shepard, DS

AU - Singh, D

AU - Singleton, J

AU - Sliwa, K

AU - Smith, E

AU - Steer, A

AU - Taylor, JA

AU - Thomas, B

AU - Tleyjeh, IM

AU - Towbin, JA

AU - Truelsen, T

AU - Undurraga, EA

AU - Venketasubramanian, N

AU - Vijayakumar, L

AU - de Vos, T

AU - Wagner, GR

AU - Wang, MR

AU - Wang, WZ

AU - Watt, K

AU - Weinstock, MA

AU - Weintraub, R

AU - Wilkinson, JD

AU - Woolf, AD

AU - Wulf, S

AU - Yeh, PH

AU - Yip, P

AU - Zabetian, A

AU - Zheng, ZJ

AU - Lopez, AD

AU - Murray, CJL

PY - 2012

Y1 - 2012

N2 - Background Reliable and timely information on the leading causes of death in populations, and how these are changing, is a crucial input into health policy debates. In the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), we aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex. Methods We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries. We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death. We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data. For 13 Findings In 2010, there were 52.8 million deaths globally. At the most aggregate level, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes were 24.9% of deaths worldwide in 2010, down from 15.9 million (34.1%) of 46.5 million in 1990. This decrease was largely due to decreases in mortality from diarrhoeal disease (from 2.5 to 1.4 million), lower respiratory infections (from 3.4 to 2.8 million), neonatal disorders (from 3.1 to 2.2 million), measles (from 0.63 to 0.13 million), and tetanus ( Interpretation Population growth, increased average age of the world's population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases. Nevertheless, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes remain the dominant causes of YLLs in sub-Saharan Africa. Overlaid on this general pattern of the epidemiological transition, marked reg

AB - Background Reliable and timely information on the leading causes of death in populations, and how these are changing, is a crucial input into health policy debates. In the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), we aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex. Methods We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries. We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death. We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data. For 13 Findings In 2010, there were 52.8 million deaths globally. At the most aggregate level, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes were 24.9% of deaths worldwide in 2010, down from 15.9 million (34.1%) of 46.5 million in 1990. This decrease was largely due to decreases in mortality from diarrhoeal disease (from 2.5 to 1.4 million), lower respiratory infections (from 3.4 to 2.8 million), neonatal disorders (from 3.1 to 2.2 million), measles (from 0.63 to 0.13 million), and tetanus ( Interpretation Population growth, increased average age of the world's population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases. Nevertheless, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes remain the dominant causes of YLLs in sub-Saharan Africa. Overlaid on this general pattern of the epidemiological transition, marked reg

U2 - 10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61728-0

DO - 10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61728-0

M3 - Article

VL - 380

SP - 2095

EP - 2128

JO - The Lancet

JF - The Lancet

SN - 0140-6736

IS - 9859

ER -