Is dementia incidence declining? Trends in dementia incidence since 1990 in the Rotterdam Study

Objective: To investigate whether dementia incidence has changed over the last 2 decades. Methods: We compared dementia incidence in 2 independent subcohorts of persons aged 60-90 years from the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort study. The first subcohort started in 1990 (n = 5,727), the second in 2000 (n = 1,769). Participants were dementia-free at baseline and followed for at maximum 5 years. We calculated age-adjusted dementia incidence rates for the 2 subcohorts in total, in 10-year age strata, and for men and women separately. We also compared mortality rates, differenc Results: In the 1990 subcohort (25,696 person-years), 286 persons developed dementia, and in the 2000 subcohort (8,384 person-years), 49 persons. Age-adjusted dementia incidence rates were consistently, yet nonsignificantly, lower in the 2000 subcohort in all strata, reaching borderline significance in the overall analysis (incidence rate ratio 0.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.56-1.02). Mortality rates were also lower in the 2000 subcohort (rate ratio 0.63, 95% CI 0.52-0.77). The prevalence Conclusions: Although the differences in dementia incidence were nonsignificant, our study suggests that dementia incidence has decreased between 1990 and 2005. Neurology (R) 2012;78:1456-1463