Likelihood of early detection of breast cancer in relation to false-positive risk in life-time mammographic screening: population-based cohort study

JDM Otten, Jacques Fracheboud, GJ den Heeten, Suzie Otto, R Holland, Harry de Koning, MJM Broeders, ALM Verbeek

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Women require balanced, high-quality information when making an informed decision on screening benefits and harms before attending biennial mammographic screening. The cumulative risk of a false-positive recall and/or (small) screen-detected or interval cancer over 13 consecutive screening examinations for women aged 50 from the start of screening were estimated using data from the Nijmegen programme, the Netherlands. Women who underwent 13 successive screens in the period 1975-1976 had a 5.3% cumulative chance of a screen-detected cancer, with a 4.2% risk of at least one false-positive recall. The risk of being diagnosed with interval cancer was 3.7%. Two decades later, these estimates were 6.9%, 7.3% and 2.9%, respectively. The chance of detection of a small, favourable invasive breast cancer, anticipating a normal life-expectancy, rose from 2.3% to 3.7%. Extrapolation to digital screening mammography indic Dutch women about to participate in the screening programme can be reassured that the chance of false-positive recall in the Netherlands is relatively low. A new screening policy and improved mammography have increased the detection of an early screening carcinoma and lowering the risk of interval carcinoma.
Original languageUndefined/Unknown
Pages (from-to)2501-2506
Number of pages6
JournalAnnals of Oncology
Issue number10
Publication statusPublished - 2013

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