Modeling flight delays by an intensity-based Hawkes process

Philip Hans Franses; Carlijn Smeets

doi:10.1002/asmb.2846

Modeling flight delays by an intensity-based Hawkes process

Philip Hans Franses^*, Carlijn Smeets

^*Corresponding author for this work

Econometrics

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Abstract

Two key features of airline departure delays are that they cascade and that there can be exceptional peaks. We model these features using an intensity-based Hawkes process. Our application to all KLM departure delays at Amsterdam Schiphol airport in January 2015 shows that volatility in departure delays is endogenous. We correlate the key parameters of the estimated Hawkes process with daily weather conditions and find that these conditions amplify the self-exciting feature of departure delays.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	863-874
Number of pages	12
Journal	Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry
Volume	40
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1002/asmb.2846
Publication status	E-pub ahead of print - 13 Feb 2024

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© 2024 The Authors. Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

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Modeling flight delays by an intensity-based Hawkes process

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