Outcome prediction in large vessel occlusion ischemic stroke with or without endovascular stroke treatment: THRIVE-EVT

Alexander C. Flint*, Sheila L. Chan, Nancy J. Edwards, Vivek A. Rao, Jeffrey G. Klingman, Mai N. Nguyen-Huynh, Bernard Yan, Peter J. Mitchell, Stephen M. Davis, Bruce C.V. Campbell, Diederik W. Dippel, Yvo B.W.E.M. Roos, Wim H. van Zwam, Jeffrey L. Saver, Chelsea S. Kidwell, Michael D. Hill, Mayank Goyal, Andrew M. Demchuk, Serge Bracard, Martin BendszusGeoffrey A. Donnan

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review


Introduction: The THRIVE score and the THRIVE-c calculation are validated ischemic stroke outcome prediction tools based on patient variables that are readily available at initial presentation. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have demonstrated the benefit of endovascular treatment (EVT) for many patients with large vessel occlusion (LVO), and pooled data from these trials allow for adaptation of the THRIVE-c calculation for use in shared clinical decision making regarding EVT. Methods: To extend THRIVE-c for use in the context of EVT, we extracted data from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive (VISTA) from 7 RCTs of EVT. Models were built in a randomly selected development cohort using logistic regression that included the predictors from THRIVE-c: age, NIH Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score, presence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and/or atrial fibrillation, as well as randomization to EVT and, where available, the Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS). Results: Good outcome was achieved in 366/787 (46.5%) of subjects randomized to EVT and in 236/795 (29.7%) of subjects randomized to control (P < 0.001), and the improvement in outcome with EVT was seen across age, NIHSS, and THRIVE-c good outcome prediction. Models to predict outcome using THRIVE elements (age, NIHSS, and comorbidities) together with EVT, with or without ASPECTS, had similar performance by ROC analysis in the development and validation cohorts (THRIVE-EVT ROC area under the curve (AUC) = 0.716 in development, 0.727 in validation, P = 0.30; THRIVE-EVT + ASPECTS ROC AUC = 0.718 in development, 0.735 in validation, P = 0.12). Conclusion: THRIVE-EVT may be used alongside the original THRIVE-c calculation to improve outcome probability estimation for patients with acute ischemic stroke, including patients with or without LVO, and to model the potential improvement in outcomes with EVT for an individual patient based on variables that are available at initial presentation. Online calculators for THRIVE-c estimation are available at www.thrivescore.org and www.mdcalc.com/thrive-score-for-stroke-outcome.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)331-337
Number of pages7
JournalInternational Journal of Stroke
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - 23 Mar 2023

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© 2022 World Stroke Organization.


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