Pandemic risk characterisation of zoonotic influenza A viruses using the Tool for Influenza Pandemic Risk Assessment (TIPRA)

Reina Yamaji; Wenqing Zhang; Akiko Kamata; Cornelia Adlhoch; David E. Swayne; Dmitriy Pereyaslov; Dayan Wang; Gabriele Neumann; Gounalan Pavade; Ian G. Barr; Malik Peiris; Richard J. Webby; Ron A.M. Fouchier; Sophie Von Dobschütz; Thomas Fabrizio; Yuelong Shu; Magdi Samaan

doi:10.1016/j.lanmic.2024.100973

Pandemic risk characterisation of zoonotic influenza A viruses using the Tool for Influenza Pandemic Risk Assessment (TIPRA)

Reina Yamaji, Wenqing Zhang, Akiko Kamata, Cornelia Adlhoch, David E. Swayne, Dmitriy Pereyaslov, Dayan Wang, Gabriele Neumann, Gounalan Pavade, Ian G. Barr, Malik Peiris, Richard J. Webby, Ron A.M. Fouchier, Sophie Von Dobschütz, Thomas Fabrizio, Yuelong Shu, Magdi Samaan^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Virology

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › Academic › peer-review

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Abstract

A systematic risk assessment approach is essential for evaluating the relative risk of influenza A viruses (IAVs) with pandemic potential. To achieve this, the Tool for Influenza Pandemic Risk Assessment (TIPRA) was developed under the Global Influenza Programme of WHO. Since its release in 2016 and update in 2020, TIPRA has been used to assess the pandemic risk of 11 zoonotic IAVs across ten evaluation rounds. Notably, A(H7N9), A(H9N2), and A(H5) clade 2.3.4.4 viruses were re-evaluated owing to changes in epidemiological characteristics or virus properties. A(H7N9) viruses had the highest relative risk at the time of assessment, highlighting the importance of continuous monitoring and reassessment as changes in epidemiological trends within animal and human populations can alter risk profiles. The knowledge gaps identified throughout the ten risk assessments should help to guide the efficient use of resources for future research, including surveillance. The TIPRA tool reflects the One Health approach and has proven crucial for closely monitoring virus dynamics in both human and non-human populations to enhance preparedness for potential IAV pandemics.

Original language	English
Article number	100973
Journal	The Lancet Microbe
Volume	6
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanmic.2024.100973
Publication status	Published - Mar 2025

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Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 World Health Organization

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Pandemic risk characterisation of zoonotic influenza A viruses using the Tool for Influenza Pandemic Risk Assessment (TIPRA)Final published version, 380 KBLicence: CC BY

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Yamaji, R., Zhang, W., Kamata, A., Adlhoch, C., Swayne, D. E., Pereyaslov, D., Wang, D., Neumann, G., Pavade, G., Barr, I. G., Peiris, M., Webby, R. J., Fouchier, R. A. M., Von Dobschütz, S., Fabrizio, T., Shu, Y., & Samaan, M. (2025). Pandemic risk characterisation of zoonotic influenza A viruses using the Tool for Influenza Pandemic Risk Assessment (TIPRA). The Lancet Microbe, 6(3), Article 100973. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanmic.2024.100973

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title = "Pandemic risk characterisation of zoonotic influenza A viruses using the Tool for Influenza Pandemic Risk Assessment (TIPRA)",

abstract = "A systematic risk assessment approach is essential for evaluating the relative risk of influenza A viruses (IAVs) with pandemic potential. To achieve this, the Tool for Influenza Pandemic Risk Assessment (TIPRA) was developed under the Global Influenza Programme of WHO. Since its release in 2016 and update in 2020, TIPRA has been used to assess the pandemic risk of 11 zoonotic IAVs across ten evaluation rounds. Notably, A(H7N9), A(H9N2), and A(H5) clade 2.3.4.4 viruses were re-evaluated owing to changes in epidemiological characteristics or virus properties. A(H7N9) viruses had the highest relative risk at the time of assessment, highlighting the importance of continuous monitoring and reassessment as changes in epidemiological trends within animal and human populations can alter risk profiles. The knowledge gaps identified throughout the ten risk assessments should help to guide the efficient use of resources for future research, including surveillance. The TIPRA tool reflects the One Health approach and has proven crucial for closely monitoring virus dynamics in both human and non-human populations to enhance preparedness for potential IAV pandemics.",

author = "Reina Yamaji and Wenqing Zhang and Akiko Kamata and Cornelia Adlhoch and Swayne, {David E.} and Dmitriy Pereyaslov and Dayan Wang and Gabriele Neumann and Gounalan Pavade and Barr, {Ian G.} and Malik Peiris and Webby, {Richard J.} and Fouchier, {Ron A.M.} and {Von Dobsch{\"u}tz}, Sophie and Thomas Fabrizio and Yuelong Shu and Magdi Samaan",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2024 World Health Organization",

year = "2025",

month = mar,

doi = "10.1016/j.lanmic.2024.100973",

language = "English",

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Yamaji, R, Zhang, W, Kamata, A, Adlhoch, C, Swayne, DE, Pereyaslov, D, Wang, D, Neumann, G, Pavade, G, Barr, IG, Peiris, M, Webby, RJ, Fouchier, RAM, Von Dobschütz, S, Fabrizio, T, Shu, Y & Samaan, M 2025, 'Pandemic risk characterisation of zoonotic influenza A viruses using the Tool for Influenza Pandemic Risk Assessment (TIPRA)', The Lancet Microbe, vol. 6, no. 3, 100973. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanmic.2024.100973

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T1 - Pandemic risk characterisation of zoonotic influenza A viruses using the Tool for Influenza Pandemic Risk Assessment (TIPRA)

AU - Yamaji, Reina

AU - Zhang, Wenqing

AU - Kamata, Akiko

AU - Adlhoch, Cornelia

AU - Swayne, David E.

AU - Pereyaslov, Dmitriy

AU - Wang, Dayan

AU - Neumann, Gabriele

AU - Pavade, Gounalan

AU - Barr, Ian G.

AU - Peiris, Malik

AU - Webby, Richard J.

AU - Fouchier, Ron A.M.

AU - Von Dobschütz, Sophie

AU - Fabrizio, Thomas

AU - Shu, Yuelong

AU - Samaan, Magdi

PY - 2025/3

Y1 - 2025/3

N2 - A systematic risk assessment approach is essential for evaluating the relative risk of influenza A viruses (IAVs) with pandemic potential. To achieve this, the Tool for Influenza Pandemic Risk Assessment (TIPRA) was developed under the Global Influenza Programme of WHO. Since its release in 2016 and update in 2020, TIPRA has been used to assess the pandemic risk of 11 zoonotic IAVs across ten evaluation rounds. Notably, A(H7N9), A(H9N2), and A(H5) clade 2.3.4.4 viruses were re-evaluated owing to changes in epidemiological characteristics or virus properties. A(H7N9) viruses had the highest relative risk at the time of assessment, highlighting the importance of continuous monitoring and reassessment as changes in epidemiological trends within animal and human populations can alter risk profiles. The knowledge gaps identified throughout the ten risk assessments should help to guide the efficient use of resources for future research, including surveillance. The TIPRA tool reflects the One Health approach and has proven crucial for closely monitoring virus dynamics in both human and non-human populations to enhance preparedness for potential IAV pandemics.

AB - A systematic risk assessment approach is essential for evaluating the relative risk of influenza A viruses (IAVs) with pandemic potential. To achieve this, the Tool for Influenza Pandemic Risk Assessment (TIPRA) was developed under the Global Influenza Programme of WHO. Since its release in 2016 and update in 2020, TIPRA has been used to assess the pandemic risk of 11 zoonotic IAVs across ten evaluation rounds. Notably, A(H7N9), A(H9N2), and A(H5) clade 2.3.4.4 viruses were re-evaluated owing to changes in epidemiological characteristics or virus properties. A(H7N9) viruses had the highest relative risk at the time of assessment, highlighting the importance of continuous monitoring and reassessment as changes in epidemiological trends within animal and human populations can alter risk profiles. The knowledge gaps identified throughout the ten risk assessments should help to guide the efficient use of resources for future research, including surveillance. The TIPRA tool reflects the One Health approach and has proven crucial for closely monitoring virus dynamics in both human and non-human populations to enhance preparedness for potential IAV pandemics.

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DO - 10.1016/j.lanmic.2024.100973

M3 - Review article

C2 - 39396528

AN - SCOPUS:85206108651

SN - 2666-5247

VL - 6

JO - The Lancet Microbe

JF - The Lancet Microbe

IS - 3

M1 - 100973

ER -

Pandemic risk characterisation of zoonotic influenza A viruses using the Tool for Influenza Pandemic Risk Assessment (TIPRA)

Abstract

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