Predicting 10-year survival after resection of colorectal liver metastases: an international study including biomarkers and perioperative treatment

Florian E. Buisman; Daniele Giardiello; Nancy E. Kemeny; Ewout W. Steyerberg; Diederik J. Höppener; Boris Galjart; Pieter M.H. Nierop; Vinod P. Balachandran; Andrea Cercek; Jeffrey A. Drebin; Mithat Gönen; William R. Jarnagin; T. P. Kingham; Peter B. Vermeulen; Alice C. Wei; Dirk J. Grünhagen; Cornelis Verhoef; Micheal I. D'Angelica; Bas Groot Koerkamp

doi:10.1016/j.ejca.2022.01.012

Predicting 10-year survival after resection of colorectal liver metastases: an international study including biomarkers and perioperative treatment

Florian E. Buisman, Daniele Giardiello, Nancy E. Kemeny, Ewout W. Steyerberg, Diederik J. Höppener, Boris Galjart, Pieter M.H. Nierop, Vinod P. Balachandran, Andrea Cercek, Jeffrey A. Drebin, Mithat Gönen, William R. Jarnagin, T. P. Kingham, Peter B. Vermeulen, Alice C. Wei, Dirk J. Grünhagen, Cornelis Verhoef, Micheal I. D'Angelica, Bas Groot Koerkamp^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model for 10-year overall survival (OS) after resection of colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM) based on patient, tumour and treatment characteristics.

METHODS: Consecutive patients after complete resection of CRLM were included from two centres (1992-2019). A prediction model providing 10-year OS probabilities was developed using Cox regression analysis, including KRAS, BRAF and histopathological growth patterns. Discrimination and calibration were assessed using cross-validation. A web-based calculator was built to predict individual 10-year OS probabilities.

RESULTS: A total of 4112 patients were included. The estimated 10-year OS was 30% (95% CI 29-32). Fifteen patient, tumour and treatment characteristics were independent prognostic factors for 10-year OS; age, gender, location and nodal status of the primary tumour, disease-free interval, number and diameter of CRLM, preoperative CEA, resection margin, extrahepatic disease, KRAS and BRAF mutation status, histopathological growth patterns, perioperative systemic chemotherapy and hepatic arterial infusion pump chemotherapy. The discrimination at 10-years was 0.73 for both centres. A simplified risk score identified four risk groups with a 10-year OS of 57%, 38%, 24%, and 12%.

CONCLUSIONS: Ten-year OS after resection of CRLM is best predicted with a model including 15 patient, tumour, and treatment characteristics. The web-based calculator can be used to inform patients. This model serves as a benchmark to determine the prognostic value of novel biomarkers.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	25-33
Number of pages	9
Journal	European Journal of Cancer
Volume	168
Early online date	Apr 2022
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejca.2022.01.012
Publication status	Published - Jun 2022

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Predicting 10-year survival after resection of colorectal liver metastases; an international study including biomarkers and perioperative treatmentFinal published version, 743 KBLicence: CC BY

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Buisman, F. E., Giardiello, D., Kemeny, N. E., Steyerberg, E. W., Höppener, D. J., Galjart, B., Nierop, P. M. H., Balachandran, V. P., Cercek, A., Drebin, J. A., Gönen, M., Jarnagin, W. R., Kingham, T. P., Vermeulen, P. B., Wei, A. C., Grünhagen, D. J., Verhoef, C., D'Angelica, M. I., & Koerkamp, B. G. (2022). Predicting 10-year survival after resection of colorectal liver metastases: an international study including biomarkers and perioperative treatment. European Journal of Cancer, 168, 25-33. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejca.2022.01.012

@article{702483a5c0f043049bbe408496ff9737,

title = "Predicting 10-year survival after resection of colorectal liver metastases: an international study including biomarkers and perioperative treatment",

abstract = "BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model for 10-year overall survival (OS) after resection of colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM) based on patient, tumour and treatment characteristics.METHODS: Consecutive patients after complete resection of CRLM were included from two centres (1992-2019). A prediction model providing 10-year OS probabilities was developed using Cox regression analysis, including KRAS, BRAF and histopathological growth patterns. Discrimination and calibration were assessed using cross-validation. A web-based calculator was built to predict individual 10-year OS probabilities.RESULTS: A total of 4112 patients were included. The estimated 10-year OS was 30% (95% CI 29-32). Fifteen patient, tumour and treatment characteristics were independent prognostic factors for 10-year OS; age, gender, location and nodal status of the primary tumour, disease-free interval, number and diameter of CRLM, preoperative CEA, resection margin, extrahepatic disease, KRAS and BRAF mutation status, histopathological growth patterns, perioperative systemic chemotherapy and hepatic arterial infusion pump chemotherapy. The discrimination at 10-years was 0.73 for both centres. A simplified risk score identified four risk groups with a 10-year OS of 57%, 38%, 24%, and 12%.CONCLUSIONS: Ten-year OS after resection of CRLM is best predicted with a model including 15 patient, tumour, and treatment characteristics. The web-based calculator can be used to inform patients. This model serves as a benchmark to determine the prognostic value of novel biomarkers.",

author = "Buisman, {Florian E.} and Daniele Giardiello and Kemeny, {Nancy E.} and Steyerberg, {Ewout W.} and H{\"o}ppener, {Diederik J.} and Boris Galjart and Nierop, {Pieter M.H.} and Balachandran, {Vinod P.} and Andrea Cercek and Drebin, {Jeffrey A.} and Mithat G{\"o}nen and Jarnagin, {William R.} and Kingham, {T. P.} and Vermeulen, {Peter B.} and Wei, {Alice C.} and Gr{\"u}nhagen, {Dirk J.} and Cornelis Verhoef and D'Angelica, {Micheal I.} and Koerkamp, {Bas Groot}",

year = "2022",

month = jun,

doi = "10.1016/j.ejca.2022.01.012",

language = "English",

volume = "168",

pages = "25--33",

journal = "European Journal of Cancer",

issn = "0959-8049",

publisher = "Elsevier Ltd.",

}

Buisman, FE, Giardiello, D, Kemeny, NE, Steyerberg, EW, Höppener, DJ , Galjart, B , Nierop, PMH, Balachandran, VP, Cercek, A, Drebin, JA, Gönen, M, Jarnagin, WR, Kingham, TP, Vermeulen, PB, Wei, AC, Grünhagen, DJ , Verhoef, C, D'Angelica, MI & Koerkamp, BG 2022, 'Predicting 10-year survival after resection of colorectal liver metastases: an international study including biomarkers and perioperative treatment', European Journal of Cancer, vol. 168, pp. 25-33. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejca.2022.01.012

TY - JOUR

T1 - Predicting 10-year survival after resection of colorectal liver metastases

T2 - an international study including biomarkers and perioperative treatment

AU - Buisman, Florian E.

AU - Giardiello, Daniele

AU - Kemeny, Nancy E.

AU - Steyerberg, Ewout W.

AU - Höppener, Diederik J.

AU - Galjart, Boris

AU - Nierop, Pieter M.H.

AU - Balachandran, Vinod P.

AU - Cercek, Andrea

AU - Drebin, Jeffrey A.

AU - Gönen, Mithat

AU - Jarnagin, William R.

AU - Kingham, T. P.

AU - Vermeulen, Peter B.

AU - Wei, Alice C.

AU - Grünhagen, Dirk J.

AU - Verhoef, Cornelis

AU - D'Angelica, Micheal I.

AU - Koerkamp, Bas Groot

PY - 2022/6

Y1 - 2022/6

N2 - BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model for 10-year overall survival (OS) after resection of colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM) based on patient, tumour and treatment characteristics.METHODS: Consecutive patients after complete resection of CRLM were included from two centres (1992-2019). A prediction model providing 10-year OS probabilities was developed using Cox regression analysis, including KRAS, BRAF and histopathological growth patterns. Discrimination and calibration were assessed using cross-validation. A web-based calculator was built to predict individual 10-year OS probabilities.RESULTS: A total of 4112 patients were included. The estimated 10-year OS was 30% (95% CI 29-32). Fifteen patient, tumour and treatment characteristics were independent prognostic factors for 10-year OS; age, gender, location and nodal status of the primary tumour, disease-free interval, number and diameter of CRLM, preoperative CEA, resection margin, extrahepatic disease, KRAS and BRAF mutation status, histopathological growth patterns, perioperative systemic chemotherapy and hepatic arterial infusion pump chemotherapy. The discrimination at 10-years was 0.73 for both centres. A simplified risk score identified four risk groups with a 10-year OS of 57%, 38%, 24%, and 12%.CONCLUSIONS: Ten-year OS after resection of CRLM is best predicted with a model including 15 patient, tumour, and treatment characteristics. The web-based calculator can be used to inform patients. This model serves as a benchmark to determine the prognostic value of novel biomarkers.

AB - BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model for 10-year overall survival (OS) after resection of colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM) based on patient, tumour and treatment characteristics.METHODS: Consecutive patients after complete resection of CRLM were included from two centres (1992-2019). A prediction model providing 10-year OS probabilities was developed using Cox regression analysis, including KRAS, BRAF and histopathological growth patterns. Discrimination and calibration were assessed using cross-validation. A web-based calculator was built to predict individual 10-year OS probabilities.RESULTS: A total of 4112 patients were included. The estimated 10-year OS was 30% (95% CI 29-32). Fifteen patient, tumour and treatment characteristics were independent prognostic factors for 10-year OS; age, gender, location and nodal status of the primary tumour, disease-free interval, number and diameter of CRLM, preoperative CEA, resection margin, extrahepatic disease, KRAS and BRAF mutation status, histopathological growth patterns, perioperative systemic chemotherapy and hepatic arterial infusion pump chemotherapy. The discrimination at 10-years was 0.73 for both centres. A simplified risk score identified four risk groups with a 10-year OS of 57%, 38%, 24%, and 12%.CONCLUSIONS: Ten-year OS after resection of CRLM is best predicted with a model including 15 patient, tumour, and treatment characteristics. The web-based calculator can be used to inform patients. This model serves as a benchmark to determine the prognostic value of novel biomarkers.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85128209212&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.ejca.2022.01.012

DO - 10.1016/j.ejca.2022.01.012

M3 - Article

C2 - 35430383

AN - SCOPUS:85128209212

SN - 0959-8049

VL - 168

SP - 25

EP - 33

JO - European Journal of Cancer

JF - European Journal of Cancer

ER -

Predicting 10-year survival after resection of colorectal liver metastases: an international study including biomarkers and perioperative treatment

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