Predicting attitudinal and behavioral responses to COVID-19 pandemic using machine learning

Tomislav Pavlović*, Flavio Azevedo, Koustav De, Julián C Riaño-Moreno, Marina Maglić, Theofilos Gkinopoulos, Patricio Andreas Donnelly-Kehoe, César Payán-Gómez, Guanxiong Huang, Jaroslaw Kantorowicz, Michèle D Birtel, Philipp Schönegger, Valerio Capraro, Hernando Santamaría-García, Meltem Yucel, Agustin Ibanez, Steve Rathje, Erik Wetter, Dragan Stanojević, Jan-Willem van ProoijenEugenia Hesse, Christian T Elbaek, Renata Franc, Zoran Pavlović, Panagiotis Mitkidis, Aleksandra Cichocka, Michele Gelfand, Mark Alfano, Robert M Ross, Hallgeir Sjåstad, John B Nezlek, Aleksandra Cislak, Patricia Lockwood, Koen Abts, Elena Agadullina, David M Amodio, Matthew A J Apps, John Jamir Benzon Aruta, Sahba Besharati, Alexander Bor, Becky Choma, William Cunningham, Waqas Ejaz, Harry Farmer, Andrej Findor, Biljana Gjoneska, Estrella Gualda, Toan L D Huynh, Mostak Ahamed Imran, Jacob Israelashvili, Elena Kantorowicz-Reznichenko, André Krouwel, Yordan Kutiyski, Michael Laakasuo, Claus Lamm, Jonathan Levy, Caroline Leygue, Ming-Jen Lin, Mohammad Sabbir Mansoor, Antoine Marie, Lewend Mayiwar, Honorata Mazepus, Cillian McHugh, Andreas Olsson, Tobias Otterbring, Dominic Packer, Jussi Palomäki, Anat Perry, Michael Bang Petersen, Arathy Puthillam, Tobias Rothmund, Petra C Schmid, David Stadelmann, Augustin Stoica, Drozdstoy Stoyanov, Kristina Stoyanova, Shruti Tewari, Bojan Todosijević, Benno Torgler, Manos Tsakiris, Hans H Tung, Radu Gabriel Umbreș, Edmunds Vanags, Madalina Vlasceanu, Andrew J Vonasch, Yucheng Zhang, Mohcine Abad, Eli Adler, Hamza Alaoui Mdarhri, Benedict Antazo, F Ceren Ay, Mouhamadou El Hady Ba, Sergio Barbosa, Brock Bastian, Anton Berg, Michał Białek, Ennio Bilancini, Natalia Bogatyreva, Leonardo Boncinelli, Jonathan E Booth, Sylvie Borau, Ondrej Buchel, Chrissie Ferreira de Carvalho, Tatiana Celadin, Chiara Cerami, Hom Nath Chalise, Xiaojun Cheng, Luca Cian, Kate Cockcroft, Jane Conway, Mateo A Córdoba-Delgado, Chiara Crespi, Marie Crouzevialle, Jo Cutler, Marzena Cypryańska, Justyna Dabrowska, Victoria H Davis, John Paul Minda, Pamala N Dayley, Sylvain Delouvée, Ognjan Denkovski, Guillaume Dezecache, Nathan A Dhaliwal, Alelie Diato, Roberto Di Paolo, Uwe Dulleck, Jānis Ekmanis, Tom W Etienne, Hapsa Hossain Farhana, Fahima Farkhari, Kristijan Fidanovski, Terry Flew, Shona Fraser, Raymond Boadi Frempong, Jonathan Fugelsang, Jessica Gale, E Begoña García-Navarro, Prasad Garladinne, Kurt Gray, Siobhán M Griffin, Bjarki Gronfeldt, June Gruber, Eran Halperin, Volo Herzon, Matej Hruška, Matthias F C Hudecek, Ozan Isler, Simon Jangard, Frederik Jørgensen, Oleksandra Keudel, Lina Koppel, Mika Koverola, Anton Kunnari, Josh Leota, Eva Lermer, Chunyun Li, Chiara Longoni, Darragh McCashin, Igor Mikloušić, Juliana Molina-Paredes, César Monroy-Fonseca, Elena Morales-Marente, David Moreau, Rafał Muda, Annalisa Myer, Kyle Nash, Jonas P Nitschke, Matthew S Nurse, Victoria Oldemburgo de Mello, Maria Soledad Palacios-Galvez, Yafeng Pan, Zsófia Papp, Philip Pärnamets, Mariola Paruzel-Czachura, Silva Perander, Michael Pitman, Ali Raza, Gabriel Gaudencio Rêgo, Claire Robertson, Iván Rodríguez-Pascual, Teemu Saikkonen, Octavio Salvador-Ginez, Waldir M Sampaio, Gaia Chiara Santi, David Schultner, Enid Schutte, Andy Scott, Ahmed Skali, Anna Stefaniak, Anni Sternisko, Brent Strickland, Jeffrey P Thomas, Gustav Tinghög, Iris J Traast, Raffaele Tucciarelli, Michael Tyrala, Nick D Ungson, Mete Sefa Uysal, Dirk Van Rooy, Daniel Västfjäll, Joana B Vieira, Christian von Sikorski, Alexander C Walker, Jennifer Watermeyer, Robin Willardt, Michael J A Wohl, Adrian Dominik Wójcik, Kaidi Wu, Yuki Yamada, Onurcan Yilmaz, Kumar Yogeeswaran, Carolin-Theresa Ziemer, Rolf A Zwaan, Paulo Sergio Boggio, Ashley Whillans, Paul A M Van Lange, Rajib Prasad, Michal Onderco, Cathal O'Madagain, Tarik Nesh-Nash, Oscar Moreda Laguna, Emily Kubin, Mert Gümren, Ali Fenwick, Arhan S Ertan, Michael J Bernstein, Hanane Amara, Jay Joseph Van Bavel

*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

At the beginning of 2020, COVID-19 became a global problem. Despite all the efforts to emphasize the relevance of preventive measures, not everyone adhered to them. Thus, learning more about the characteristics determining attitudinal and behavioral responses to the pandemic is crucial to improving future interventions. In this study, we applied machine learning on the multinational data collected by the International Collaboration on the Social and Moral Psychology of COVID-19 (N = 51,404) to test the predictive efficacy of constructs from social, moral, cognitive, and personality psychology, as well as socio-demographic factors, in the attitudinal and behavioral responses to the pandemic. The results point to several valuable insights. Internalized moral identity provided the most consistent predictive contribution-individuals perceiving moral traits as central to their self-concept reported higher adherence to preventive measures. Similar results were found for morality as cooperation, symbolized moral identity, self-control, open-mindedness, and collective narcissism, while the inverse relationship was evident for the endorsement of conspiracy theories. However, we also found a non-neglible variability in the explained variance and predictive contributions with respect to macro-level factors such as the pandemic stage or cultural region. Overall, the results underscore the importance of morality-related and contextual factors in understanding adherence to public health recommendations during the pandemic.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)pgac093
JournalPNAS nexus
Volume1
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding:
E.L. was financially supported by the VolkswagenStiftung (grant
no. 98 525). Manos Tsakiris was financially supported by the
NOMIS Stiftung (NOMIS Foundation). O.B. was financially supported by the Slovak Research and Development Agency (SRDA;
Agentúra na podporu výskumu a vývoja; grant no. APVV-18-0218).
P.L. was financially supported by the Medical Research Council
(MRC; grant no. MR/P014097/1) and the Economic Social Research
Council Impact Acceleration Award, University of Oxford. M.B.P.
was financially supported by the Carlsberg Foundation (grant no.
CF20-044).Michael Tyrala was financially supported by the HKUST
IEMS research grant project, funded by EY. R.A.Z. was financially
supported by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research
(NWO; grant no. 440.20.003). Z.P. was financially supported by the
Ministry of Education, Science, and Technological Development
of the Republic of Serbia (grant no. 451-03-9/2021-14/200163). Y.Z.
was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant no. 71972065; 71832004; and 71872152),
Universities in Hebei Province Hundred Outstanding Innovative
Talents Support Program (grant no. SLRC2019002); and the Ministry of Education in China (grant no. 21JHQ088). B.S. was financially supported by the French National Research Agency (ANR;
grant no. ANR-10-IDEX-0001-02 PSL∗, ANR-10-LABX-0087 IEC, and
ANR-17-EURE-0017 FrontCog). J.C. was financially supported by
the IAST funding from the French National Research Agency (ANR) under the Investments for the Future (Investissements
d’Avenir) programme (grant no. ANR-17-EURE-0010). M.H. was financially supported by the Slovak Research and Development
Agency (grant no. APVV-17-0596). M.M. was financially supported
by the Institute of Social Sciences Ivo Pilar, Zagreb; Croatia. T.P.
was financially supported by the Institute of Social Sciences Ivo
Pilar and Croatian Science Foundation (grant no. DOK-01-2018),
Zagreb; Croatia. I.M. was financially supported by the Institute
of Social Sciences Ivo Pilar, Zagreb; Croatia. R.F. was financially
supported by the Institute of Social Sciences Ivo Pilar, Zagreb;
Croatia. A.I. was financially supported by the grants from Takeda
(CW2680521); CONICET; ANID/FONDECYT Regular (1210195 and
1210176); FONCYT-PICT 2017-1820; ANID/FONDAP/15150012; Sistema General de Regalías (BPIN2018000100059), the Universidad
del Valle (CI 5316); and the Multi-Partner Consortium to Expand
Dementia Research in Latin America [ReDLat, supported by the
National Institutes of Health, the National Institutes of Aging (R01
AG057234), the Alzheimer’s Association (SG-20-725707), the Rainwater Charitable foundation—Tau Consortium, and the Global
Brain Health Institute)]. P.S.B. was financially supported by the
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior—
Brasil (CAPES; grant no. 1133/2019) and the Conselho Nacional
de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq; grant no.
309905/2019-2). G.G.R. was financially supported by the São Paulo
Research Foundation (grant no. 2019/26665-5). W.M.S. was financially supported by the São Paulo Research Foundation—FAPESP
(grant no. 2019/27100-1). R.M.R. was financially supported by the
Australian Research Council (grant no. DP180102384). M.A. was financially supported by the John Templeton Foundation (grant no.
61378). H.H.T. was financially supported by the Ministry of Science
and Technology, Taiwan. M.-J.L. was financially supported by the
Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan. J.J.V.B. was financially
supported by the John Templeton Foundation. U.D. was financially
supported by the QUT Centre for Behavioural Economics, Society
and Technology (BEST). A.C. was financially supported by the National Science Center (grant no. 2018/29/B/HS6/02826). S.B. was financially supported by the ANR-Labex IAST. F.C.A. was financially
supported by the Research Council of Norway through its Centres
of Excellence Scheme, FAIR project (grant no. 262675). B.C. was financially supported by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC). C.L. was financially supported by the Sistema Nacional de Investigadores, CONACyT (Mexico). R.T. was financially supported by the NOMIS Foundation Distinguished Scientist Award for the “Body & Image in Arts & Science” (BIAS)
Project. T.O. was financially supported by the Aarhus University
Research Foundation (grant no. 28207). D.S. was financially supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German
Research Foundation) under the Germany’s Excellence Strategy
(grant no. EXC 2052/1-390713894). M.A.J.A. was financially supported by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research
Council David Phillips Fellowship (grant no. BB/R010668/1). A.K.
was financially supported by the Jane & Aatos Erkko Foundation
(grant no. 170112) and the Academy of Finland (grant no. 323207).
E.M.-M. was financially supported by the Contemporary Thinking and Innovation for Social Development (COIDESO), the University of Huelva, Huelva, Spain. T.S. was financially supported
by the Jane & Aatos Erkko Foundation (grant no. 170112) and
the Academy of Finland (grant no. 323207). C.L. was financially
supported by the University of Vienna, COVID-19 Rapid Response
grant, and the Austrian Science Fund (FWF, I3381). A.C.W. was financially supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. H.S. was financially supported by the
Research Council of Norway, Centres of Excellence scheme -FAIR project (grant no. 262675). S.B. was financially supported by the
School of Medicine and Health Sciences—Universidad del Rosario.
W.C. was financially supported by the SSHRC grant (grant no.
506547). E.B. was financially supported by the PAI2018 project PROCOPE (Prosociality, Cognition, and Peer Effects) funded by the IMT
School for Advanced Studies Lucca. V.H.D. was financially supported by the SSHRC grant (grant no. 506547). P.M. was financially
supported by the Aarhus University Research Foundation (grant
no. AUFF-E-201 9-9-4). A.F. was financially supported by the Slovak
Research and Development Agency (grant no. APVV-17-0596). S.R.
was financially supported by the Gates Cambridge Scholarship.
M.J.A.W. was financially supported by the Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada (grant no. 435-2019-0692).
A.O. was financially supported by the Swedish Research Council—
consolidator grant (grant no. 2018-00877). J.F. was financially supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. L.C. was financially supported by the Batten Institute, the University of Virginia Darden School of Business. R.B.F.
was financially supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) under the Germany’s
Excellence Strategy (grant no. EXC 2052/1-390713894). Open access funding was enabled and organized by Darden School of Business, Charlottesville, VA, USA.


© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of National Academy of Sciences.

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