Predicting survival in head and neck cancer: External validation and update of the prognostic model OncologIQ in 2189 patients

Arta Hoesseini*, Nikki van Leeuwen, Marinella P.J. Offerman, Jang Zhang, Emilie A.C. Dronkers, Aniel Sewnaik, Hester F. Lingsma, Robert Jan Baatenburg de Jong

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

19 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: Disclosing prognostic information is necessary to enable patients to make well-informed treatment decisions. OncologIQ is a prognostic model that predicts the overall survival (OS) probability in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). We aimed to externally validate and update the model with new prognostic factors and translate it to a clinically useful tool. Methods: A consecutive retrospective sample of 2189 patients eligible for curative treatment of a primary HNSCC were selected. Discriminative performance was determined using the C-statistic. Results: External validation showed systematic underestimation of OS in the new population, and reasonable discrimination (C-statistic 0.67). Adding smoking, pack years, BMI, weight loss, WHO performance, socioeconomic status, and p16 positivity to the recalibrated multivariable model, improved the internally validated C-statistic to 0.71. The model showed minor optimism and was translated in an online tool (www.oncologiq.nl). Conclusions: The updated model enables personalized patient counseling during treatment decision consultations.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2445-2456
Number of pages12
JournalHead and Neck
Volume43
Issue number8
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 7 May 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
We would like to thank all the medical students that joined the RONCDOC research team. We also would like to thank L. M. Lawant, E. F. van der Poel, and T. Grevelink for enabling the visual formats of OncologIQ. This research partly received funding from the National Health Care Institute (Zorginstituut Nederland).

Funding Information:
We would like to thank all the medical students that joined the RONCDOC research team. We also would like to thank L. M. Lawant, E. F. van der Poel, and T. Grevelink for enabling the visual formats of OncologIQ. This research partly received funding from the National Health Care Institute (Zorginstituut Nederland).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 The Authors. Head & Neck published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.

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