Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning

Elizabeth A. Cromwell; Joshua C.P. Osborne; Thomas R. Unnasch; Mariagloria Basáñez; Katherine M. Gass; Kira A. Barbre; Elex Hill; Kimberly B. Johnson; Katie M. Donkers; Shreya Shirude; Chris A. Schmidt; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Mohsen Afarideh; Ehsan Ahmadpour; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Temesgen Yihunie Akalu; Ziyad Al-Aly; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M. Alanzi; Vahid Alipour; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Fereshteh Ansari; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Davood Anvari; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Jalal Arabloo; Benjamin F. Arnold; Marcel Ausloos; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Atif Amin Baig; Maciej Banach; Aleksandra Barac; Till Winfried Barnighausen; Mohsen Bayati; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Somayeh Bohlouli; Mahdi Bohluli; Oliver J. Brady; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Zahid A. Butt; Felix Carvalho; Souranshu Chatterjee; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Soosanna Kumary Chattu; Natalie Maria Cormier; Saad M.A. Dahlawi; Giovanni Damiani; Farah Daoud; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Ahmad Daryani; Kebede Deribe; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Daniel Diaz; Hoa Thi Do; Maysaa El Sayed Zak; Maha El Tantawi; Demelash Abewa Elemineh; Anwar Faraj; Majid Fasihi Harandi; Yousef Fatahi; Valery L. Feigin; Eduarda Fernandes; Nataliya A. Foigt; Masoud Foroutan; Richard Charles Franklin; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Davide Guido; Yuming Guo; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Kanaan Hamagharib Abdullah; Samer Hamidi; Claudiu Herteliu; Hagos Degefa De Hidru; Tarig B. Higazi; Naznin Hossain; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mowafa Househ; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Milena D. Ilic; Irena M. Ilic; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Ravi Prakash Jha; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Zubair Kabir; Leila R. Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Behzad Karami Matin; Salah Eddin Karimi; Amir Kasaeian; Taras Kavetskyy; Gbenga A. Kayode; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Abraham Getachew Kelbore; Maryam Keramati; Rovshan Khalilov; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Nuruzzaman Khan; Khaled Khatab; Mona M. Khater; Neda Kianipour; Kelemu Tilahun Kibret; Yun Jin Kim; Soewarta Kosen; Kris J. Krohn; Dian Kusuma; Carlo La Vecchia; Charles Lansingh Van; Paul H. Lee; Kate E. Legrand; Shanshan Li; Joshua Longbottom; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Afshin Maleki; Abdullah A. Mamun; Ali Manafi; Navid Manafi; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Mohsen Mazidi; Colm McAlinden; Birhanu Geta Meharie; Walter Mendoza; Endalkachew Worku Mengesha; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; Seid Tiku Mereta; Tomislav Mestrovic; Ted R. Miller; Mohammad Miri; Masoud Moghadaszadeh; Abdollah Mohammadian Hafshejani; Reza Mohammadpourhodki; Shafiu Mohammed; Salahuddin Mohammed; Masoud Moradi; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Jonathan F. Mosser; Mehdi Naderi; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Gurudatta Naik; Ionut Negoi; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Rajan Nikbakhsh; Bogdan Oancea; Tinuke O. Olagunju; Andrew T. Olagunju; Ahmed Omar Bali; Obinna E. Onwujekwe; Adrian Pana; Hadi Pourjafar; Fakher Rahim; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Priya Rathi; Salman Rawaf; David Laith Rawaf; Reza Rawassizadeh; Serge Resnikoff; Melese Abate Reta; Aziz Rezapour; Enrico Rubagotti; Salvatore Rubino; Ehsan Sadeghi; Abedin Saghafipour; S. Mohammad Sajadi; Abdallah M. Samy; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez; Monika Sawhney; Megan F. Schipp; Amira A. Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Kiomars Sharafi; Aziz Sheikh; B. Suresh Kumar Shetty; Jae Il Shin; K. M. Shivakumar; Biagio Simonetti; Jasvinder A. Singh; Eirini Skiadaresi; Amin Soheili; Shahin Soltani; Emma Elizabeth Spurlock; Mu’Awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Takahiro Tabuchi; Leili Tapak; Robert L. Thompson; Alan J. Thomson; Eugenio Traini; Bach Xuan Tran; Irfan Ullah; Saif Ullah; Chigozie Jesse Uneke; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Olalekan A. Uthman; Natalie V.S.Vinkeles Melchers; Francesco S. Violante; Haileab Fekadu Wolde; Tewodros Eshete Wonde; Tomohide Yamada; Sanni Yaya; Vahid Yazdi Feyzabadi; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; Hebat Allah Salah A. Yousof; Chuanhua Yu; Yong Yu; Hasan Yusefzadeh; Leila Zaki; Sojib Bin Zaman; Maryam Zamanian; Zhi Jiang Zhang; Yunquan Zhang; Arash Ziapour; Simon I. Hay; David M. Pigott

doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0008824

Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning

Elizabeth A. Cromwell^*
, Joshua C.P. Osborne
, Thomas R. Unnasch
, Mariagloria Basáñez
, Katherine M. Gass
, Kira A. Barbre
, Elex Hill
, Kimberly B. Johnson
, Katie M. Donkers
, Shreya Shirude
, Chris A. Schmidt
, Victor Adekanmbi
, Olatunji O. Adetokunboh
, Mohsen Afarideh
, Ehsan Ahmadpour
, Muktar Beshir Ahmed
, Temesgen Yihunie Akalu
, Ziyad Al-Aly
, Fahad Mashhour Alanezi
, Turki M. Alanzi

Vahid Alipour, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Fereshteh Ansari, Mustafa Geleto Ansha, Davood Anvari, Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah, Jalal Arabloo, Benjamin F. Arnold, Marcel Ausloos, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Atif Amin Baig, Maciej Banach, Aleksandra Barac, Till Winfried Barnighausen, Mohsen Bayati, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Zulfiqar A. Bhutta, Sadia Bibi, Ali Bijani, Somayeh Bohlouli, Mahdi Bohluli, Oliver J. Brady, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Zahid A. Butt, Felix Carvalho, Souranshu Chatterjee, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Soosanna Kumary Chattu, Natalie Maria Cormier, Saad M.A. Dahlawi, Giovanni Damiani, Farah Daoud, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Ahmad Daryani, Kebede Deribe, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Daniel Diaz, Hoa Thi Do, Maysaa El Sayed Zak, Maha El Tantawi, Demelash Abewa Elemineh, Anwar Faraj, Majid Fasihi Harandi, Yousef Fatahi, Valery L. Feigin, Eduarda Fernandes, Nataliya A. Foigt, Masoud Foroutan, Richard Charles Franklin, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Davide Guido, Yuming Guo, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Kanaan Hamagharib Abdullah, Samer Hamidi, Claudiu Herteliu, Hagos Degefa De Hidru, Tarig B. Higazi, Naznin Hossain, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mowafa Househ, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Milena D. Ilic, Irena M. Ilic, Usman Iqbal, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Ravi Prakash Jha, Farahnaz Joukar, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Zubair Kabir, Leila R. Kalankesh, Rohollah Kalhor, Behzad Karami Matin, Salah Eddin Karimi, Amir Kasaeian, Taras Kavetskyy, Gbenga A. Kayode, Ali Kazemi Karyani, Abraham Getachew Kelbore, Maryam Keramati, Rovshan Khalilov, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Md Nuruzzaman Nuruzzaman Khan, Khaled Khatab, Mona M. Khater, Neda Kianipour, Kelemu Tilahun Kibret, Yun Jin Kim, Soewarta Kosen, Kris J. Krohn, Dian Kusuma, Carlo La Vecchia, Charles Lansingh Van, Paul H. Lee, Kate E. Legrand, Shanshan Li, Joshua Longbottom, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Afshin Maleki, Abdullah A. Mamun, Ali Manafi, Navid Manafi, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Mohsen Mazidi, Colm McAlinden, Birhanu Geta Meharie, Walter Mendoza, Endalkachew Worku Mengesha, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, Seid Tiku Mereta, Tomislav Mestrovic, Ted R. Miller, Mohammad Miri, Masoud Moghadaszadeh, Abdollah Mohammadian Hafshejani, Reza Mohammadpourhodki, Shafiu Mohammed, Salahuddin Mohammed, Masoud Moradi, Rahmatollah Moradzadeh, Paula Moraga, Jonathan F. Mosser, Mehdi Naderi, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Gurudatta Naik, Ionut Negoi, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Rajan Nikbakhsh, Bogdan Oancea, Tinuke O. Olagunju, Andrew T. Olagunju, Ahmed Omar Bali, Obinna E. Onwujekwe, Adrian Pana, Hadi Pourjafar, Fakher Rahim, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Priya Rathi, Salman Rawaf, David Laith Rawaf, Reza Rawassizadeh, Serge Resnikoff, Melese Abate Reta, Aziz Rezapour, Enrico Rubagotti, Salvatore Rubino, Ehsan Sadeghi, Abedin Saghafipour, S. Mohammad Sajadi, Abdallah M. Samy, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez, Monika Sawhney, Megan F. Schipp, Amira A. Shaheen, Masood Ali Shaikh, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Kiomars Sharafi, Aziz Sheikh, B. Suresh Kumar Shetty, Jae Il Shin, K. M. Shivakumar, Biagio Simonetti, Jasvinder A. Singh, Eirini Skiadaresi, Amin Soheili, Shahin Soltani, Emma Elizabeth Spurlock, Mu’Awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Takahiro Tabuchi, Leili Tapak, Robert L. Thompson, Alan J. Thomson, Eugenio Traini, Bach Xuan Tran, Irfan Ullah, Saif Ullah, Chigozie Jesse Uneke, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Olalekan A. Uthman, Natalie V.S.Vinkeles Melchers, Francesco S. Violante, Haileab Fekadu Wolde, Tewodros Eshete Wonde, Tomohide Yamada, Sanni Yaya, Vahid Yazdi Feyzabadi, Paul Yip, Naohiro Yonemoto, Hebat Allah Salah A. Yousof, Chuanhua Yu, Yong Yu, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Leila Zaki, Sojib Bin Zaman, Maryam Zamanian, Zhi Jiang Zhang, Yunquan Zhang, Arash Ziapour, Simon I. Hay, David M. Pigott

^*Corresponding author for this work

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Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

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Abstract

Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0.71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50.2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5×5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify.

Original language	English
Article number	e0008824
Journal	PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
Volume	15
Issue number	7
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008824
Publication status	Published - 28 Jul 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This work was primarily supported by a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation OPP1132415 (SIH). Financial support from theNeglected Tropical Disease Modelling Consortium (https://www.ntdmodelling.org/), which is funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (grants No. OPP1184344 and OPP1186851), and joint centre funding (grant No. MR/R015600/1) by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) and the UK Department for International Development (DFID) under the MRC/DFID Concordat agreement which is also part of the EDCTP2 programme supported by the European Union (MGB). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, Public Library of Science. All rights reserved.

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10.1371/journal.pntd.0008824

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Cite this

Cromwell, E. A., Osborne, J. C. P., Unnasch, T. R., Basáñez, M., Gass, K. M., Barbre, K. A., Hill, E., Johnson, K. B., Donkers, K. M., Shirude, S., Schmidt, C. A., Adekanmbi, V., Adetokunboh, O. O., Afarideh, M., Ahmadpour, E., Beshir Ahmed, M., Yihunie Akalu, T., Al-Aly, Z., Alanezi, F. M., ... Pigott, D. M. (2021). Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 15(7), Article e0008824. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008824

@article{5a36d8009f024ccc8795560d2323e17f,

title = "Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning",

abstract = "Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 {\texttimes} 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0.71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50.2\% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5{\texttimes}5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify.",

author = "Cromwell, \{Elizabeth A.\} and Osborne, \{Joshua C.P.\} and Unnasch, \{Thomas R.\} and Mariagloria Bas{\'a}{\~n}ez and Gass, \{Katherine M.\} and Barbre, \{Kira A.\} and Elex Hill and Johnson, \{Kimberly B.\} and Donkers, \{Katie M.\} and Shreya Shirude and Schmidt, \{Chris A.\} and Victor Adekanmbi and Adetokunboh, \{Olatunji O.\} and Mohsen Afarideh and Ehsan Ahmadpour and \{Beshir Ahmed\}, Muktar and \{Yihunie Akalu\}, Temesgen and Ziyad Al-Aly and Alanezi, \{Fahad Mashhour\} and Alanzi, \{Turki M.\} and Vahid Alipour and Andrei, \{Catalina Liliana\} and Fereshteh Ansari and Ansha, \{Mustafa Geleto\} and Davood Anvari and \{Yaw Appiah\}, \{Seth Christopher\} and Jalal Arabloo and Arnold, \{Benjamin F.\} and Marcel Ausloos and Ayanore, \{Martin Amogre\} and \{Amin Baig\}, Atif and Maciej Banach and Aleksandra Barac and Barnighausen, \{Till Winfried\} and Mohsen Bayati and Krittika Bhattacharyya and Bhutta, \{Zulfiqar A.\} and Sadia Bibi and Ali Bijani and Somayeh Bohlouli and Mahdi Bohluli and Brady, \{Oliver J.\} and Bragazzi, \{Nicola Luigi\} and Butt, \{Zahid A.\} and Felix Carvalho and Souranshu Chatterjee and Chattu, \{Vijay Kumar\} and Chattu, \{Soosanna Kumary\} and Cormier, \{Natalie Maria\} and Dahlawi, \{Saad M.A.\} and Giovanni Damiani and Farah Daoud and Darwesh, \{Aso Mohammad\} and Ahmad Daryani and Kebede Deribe and Dharmaratne, \{Samath Dhamminda\} and Daniel Diaz and Do, \{Hoa Thi\} and \{El Sayed Zak\}, Maysaa and \{El Tantawi\}, Maha and Elemineh, \{Demelash Abewa\} and Anwar Faraj and Harandi, \{Majid Fasihi\} and Yousef Fatahi and Feigin, \{Valery L.\} and Eduarda Fernandes and Foigt, \{Nataliya A.\} and Masoud Foroutan and Franklin, \{Richard Charles\} and \{Mohialdeen Gubari\}, \{Mohammed Ibrahim\} and Davide Guido and Yuming Guo and Arvin Haj-Mirzaian and Abdullah, \{Kanaan Hamagharib\} and Samer Hamidi and Claudiu Herteliu and \{De Hidru\}, \{Hagos Degefa\} and Higazi, \{Tarig B.\} and Naznin Hossain and Mehdi Hosseinzadeh and Mowafa Househ and Ilesanmi, \{Olayinka Stephen\} and Ilic, \{Milena D.\} and Ilic, \{Irena M.\} and Usman Iqbal and \{Naghibi Irvani\}, \{Seyed Sina\} and Jha, \{Ravi Prakash\} and Farahnaz Joukar and Jozwiak, \{Jacek Jerzy\} and Zubair Kabir and Kalankesh, \{Leila R.\} and Rohollah Kalhor and Matin, \{Behzad Karami\} and Karimi, \{Salah Eddin\} and Amir Kasaeian and Taras Kavetskyy and Kayode, \{Gbenga A.\} and Karyani, \{Ali Kazemi\} and Kelbore, \{Abraham Getachew\} and Maryam Keramati and Rovshan Khalilov and Khan, \{Ejaz Ahmad\} and \{Nuruzzaman Khan\}, \{Md Nuruzzaman\} and Khaled Khatab and Khater, \{Mona M.\} and Neda Kianipour and Kibret, \{Kelemu Tilahun\} and Kim, \{Yun Jin\} and Soewarta Kosen and Krohn, \{Kris J.\} and Dian Kusuma and Vecchia, \{Carlo La\} and \{Lansingh Van\}, Charles and Lee, \{Paul H.\} and Legrand, \{Kate E.\} and Shanshan Li and Joshua Longbottom and \{Abd El Razek\}, \{Hassan Magdy\} and \{Abd El Razek\}, \{Muhammed Magdy\} and Afshin Maleki and Mamun, \{Abdullah A.\} and Ali Manafi and Navid Manafi and Mansournia, \{Mohammad Ali\} and Martins-Melo, \{Francisco Rogerl{\^a}ndio\} and Mohsen Mazidi and Colm McAlinden and Meharie, \{Birhanu Geta\} and Walter Mendoza and Mengesha, \{Endalkachew Worku\} and Mengistu, \{Desalegn Tadese\} and Mereta, \{Seid Tiku\} and Tomislav Mestrovic and Miller, \{Ted R.\} and Mohammad Miri and Masoud Moghadaszadeh and Hafshejani, \{Abdollah Mohammadian\} and Reza Mohammadpourhodki and Shafiu Mohammed and Salahuddin Mohammed and Masoud Moradi and Rahmatollah Moradzadeh and Paula Moraga and Mosser, \{Jonathan F.\} and Mehdi Naderi and Nagarajan, \{Ahamarshan Jayaraman\} and Gurudatta Naik and Ionut Negoi and Nguyen, \{Cuong Tat\} and Nguyen, \{Huong Lan Thi\} and Nguyen, \{Trang Huyen\} and Rajan Nikbakhsh and Bogdan Oancea and Olagunju, \{Tinuke O.\} and Olagunju, \{Andrew T.\} and Bali, \{Ahmed Omar\} and Onwujekwe, \{Obinna E.\} and Adrian Pana and Hadi Pourjafar and Fakher Rahim and \{Ur Rahman\}, \{Mohammad Hifz\} and Priya Rathi and Salman Rawaf and Rawaf, \{David Laith\} and Reza Rawassizadeh and Serge Resnikoff and Reta, \{Melese Abate\} and Aziz Rezapour and Enrico Rubagotti and Salvatore Rubino and Ehsan Sadeghi and Abedin Saghafipour and Sajadi, \{S. Mohammad\} and Samy, \{Abdallah M.\} and Rodrigo Sarmiento-Su{\'a}rez and Monika Sawhney and Schipp, \{Megan F.\} and Shaheen, \{Amira A.\} and Shaikh, \{Masood Ali\} and Morteza Shamsizadeh and Kiomars Sharafi and Aziz Sheikh and \{Kumar Shetty\}, \{B. Suresh\} and Shin, \{Jae Il\} and Shivakumar, \{K. M.\} and Biagio Simonetti and Singh, \{Jasvinder A.\} and Eirini Skiadaresi and Amin Soheili and Shahin Soltani and Spurlock, \{Emma Elizabeth\} and Sufiyan, \{Mu{\textquoteright}Awiyyah Babale\} and Takahiro Tabuchi and Leili Tapak and Thompson, \{Robert L.\} and Thomson, \{Alan J.\} and Eugenio Traini and Tran, \{Bach Xuan\} and Irfan Ullah and Saif Ullah and Uneke, \{Chigozie Jesse\} and Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan and Uthman, \{Olalekan A.\} and Melchers, \{Natalie V.S.Vinkeles\} and Violante, \{Francesco S.\} and Wolde, \{Haileab Fekadu\} and Wonde, \{Tewodros Eshete\} and Tomohide Yamada and Sanni Yaya and \{Yazdi Feyzabadi\}, Vahid and Paul Yip and Naohiro Yonemoto and Yousof, \{Hebat Allah Salah A.\} and Chuanhua Yu and Yong Yu and Hasan Yusefzadeh and Leila Zaki and Zaman, \{Sojib Bin\} and Maryam Zamanian and Zhang, \{Zhi Jiang\} and Yunquan Zhang and Arash Ziapour and Hay, \{Simon I.\} and Pigott, \{David M.\}",

note = "Funding Information: This work was primarily supported by a grant from the Bill \& Melinda Gates Foundation OPP1132415 (SIH). Financial support from theNeglected Tropical Disease Modelling Consortium (https://www.ntdmodelling.org/), which is funded by the Bill \& Melinda Gates Foundation (grants No. OPP1184344 and OPP1186851), and joint centre funding (grant No. MR/R015600/1) by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) and the UK Department for International Development (DFID) under the MRC/DFID Concordat agreement which is also part of the EDCTP2 programme supported by the European Union (MGB). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021, Public Library of Science. All rights reserved.",

year = "2021",

month = jul,

day = "28",

doi = "10.1371/journal.pntd.0008824",

language = "English",

volume = "15",

journal = "PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases",

issn = "1935-2727",

publisher = "Public Library of Science",

number = "7",

}

Cromwell, EA, Osborne, JCP, Unnasch, TR, Basáñez, M, Gass, KM, Barbre, KA, Hill, E, Johnson, KB, Donkers, KM, Shirude, S, Schmidt, CA, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Afarideh, M, Ahmadpour, E, Beshir Ahmed, M, Yihunie Akalu, T, Al-Aly, Z, Alanezi, FM, Alanzi, TM, Alipour, V, Andrei, CL, Ansari, F, Ansha, MG, Anvari, D, Yaw Appiah, SC, Arabloo, J, Arnold, BF, Ausloos, M, Ayanore, MA, Amin Baig, A, Banach, M, Barac, A, Barnighausen, TW, Bayati, M, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhutta, ZA, Bibi, S, Bijani, A, Bohlouli, S, Bohluli, M, Brady, OJ, Bragazzi, NL, Butt, ZA, Carvalho, F, Chatterjee, S, Chattu, VK, Chattu, SK, Cormier, NM, Dahlawi, SMA, Damiani, G, Daoud, F, Darwesh, AM, Daryani, A, Deribe, K, Dharmaratne, SD, Diaz, D, Do, HT, El Sayed Zak, M, El Tantawi, M, Elemineh, DA, Faraj, A, Harandi, MF, Fatahi, Y, Feigin, VL, Fernandes, E, Foigt, NA, Foroutan, M, Franklin, RC, Mohialdeen Gubari, MI, Guido, D, Guo, Y, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Abdullah, KH, Hamidi, S, Herteliu, C, De Hidru, HD, Higazi, TB, Hossain, N, Hosseinzadeh, M, Househ, M, Ilesanmi, OS, Ilic, MD, Ilic, IM, Iqbal, U, Naghibi Irvani, SS, Jha, RP, Joukar, F, Jozwiak, JJ, Kabir, Z, Kalankesh, LR, Kalhor, R, Matin, BK, Karimi, SE, Kasaeian, A, Kavetskyy, T, Kayode, GA, Karyani, AK, Kelbore, AG, Keramati, M, Khalilov, R, Khan, EA, Nuruzzaman Khan, MN, Khatab, K, Khater, MM, Kianipour, N, Kibret, KT, Kim, YJ, Kosen, S, Krohn, KJ, Kusuma, D, Vecchia, CL, Lansingh Van, C, Lee, PH, Legrand, KE, Li, S, Longbottom, J, Abd El Razek, HM, Abd El Razek, MM, Maleki, A, Mamun, AA, Manafi, A, Manafi, N, Mansournia, MA, Martins-Melo, FR, Mazidi, M, McAlinden, C, Meharie, BG, Mendoza, W, Mengesha, EW, Mengistu, DT, Mereta, ST, Mestrovic, T, Miller, TR, Miri, M, Moghadaszadeh, M, Hafshejani, AM, Mohammadpourhodki, R, Mohammed, S, Mohammed, S, Moradi, M, Moradzadeh, R, Moraga, P, Mosser, JF, Naderi, M, Nagarajan, AJ, Naik, G, Negoi, I, Nguyen, CT, Nguyen, HLT, Nguyen, TH, Nikbakhsh, R, Oancea, B, Olagunju, TO, Olagunju, AT, Bali, AO, Onwujekwe, OE, Pana, A, Pourjafar, H, Rahim, F, Ur Rahman, MH, Rathi, P, Rawaf, S, Rawaf, DL, Rawassizadeh, R, Resnikoff, S, Reta, MA, Rezapour, A, Rubagotti, E, Rubino, S, Sadeghi, E, Saghafipour, A, Sajadi, SM, Samy, AM, Sarmiento-Suárez, R, Sawhney, M, Schipp, MF, Shaheen, AA, Shaikh, MA, Shamsizadeh, M, Sharafi, K, Sheikh, A, Kumar Shetty, BS, Shin, JI, Shivakumar, KM, Simonetti, B, Singh, JA, Skiadaresi, E, Soheili, A, Soltani, S, Spurlock, EE, Sufiyan, MAB, Tabuchi, T, Tapak, L, Thompson, RL, Thomson, AJ, Traini, E, Tran, BX, Ullah, I, Ullah, S, Uneke, CJ, Unnikrishnan, B, Uthman, OA, Melchers, NVSV, Violante, FS, Wolde, HF, Wonde, TE, Yamada, T, Yaya, S, Yazdi Feyzabadi, V, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Yousof, HASA, Yu, C, Yu, Y, Yusefzadeh, H, Zaki, L, Zaman, SB, Zamanian, M, Zhang, ZJ, Zhang, Y, Ziapour, A, Hay, SI & Pigott, DM 2021, 'Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning', PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, vol. 15, no. 7, e0008824. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008824

TY - JOUR

T1 - Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning

AU - Cromwell, Elizabeth A.

AU - Osborne, Joshua C.P.

AU - Unnasch, Thomas R.

AU - Basáñez, Mariagloria

AU - Gass, Katherine M.

AU - Barbre, Kira A.

AU - Hill, Elex

AU - Johnson, Kimberly B.

AU - Donkers, Katie M.

AU - Shirude, Shreya

AU - Schmidt, Chris A.

AU - Adekanmbi, Victor

AU - Adetokunboh, Olatunji O.

AU - Afarideh, Mohsen

AU - Ahmadpour, Ehsan

AU - Beshir Ahmed, Muktar

AU - Yihunie Akalu, Temesgen

AU - Al-Aly, Ziyad

AU - Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour

AU - Alanzi, Turki M.

AU - Alipour, Vahid

AU - Andrei, Catalina Liliana

AU - Ansari, Fereshteh

AU - Ansha, Mustafa Geleto

AU - Anvari, Davood

AU - Yaw Appiah, Seth Christopher

AU - Arabloo, Jalal

AU - Arnold, Benjamin F.

AU - Ausloos, Marcel

AU - Ayanore, Martin Amogre

AU - Amin Baig, Atif

AU - Banach, Maciej

AU - Barac, Aleksandra

AU - Barnighausen, Till Winfried

AU - Bayati, Mohsen

AU - Bhattacharyya, Krittika

AU - Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.

AU - Bibi, Sadia

AU - Bijani, Ali

AU - Bohlouli, Somayeh

AU - Bohluli, Mahdi

AU - Brady, Oliver J.

AU - Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi

AU - Butt, Zahid A.

AU - Carvalho, Felix

AU - Chatterjee, Souranshu

AU - Chattu, Vijay Kumar

AU - Chattu, Soosanna Kumary

AU - Cormier, Natalie Maria

AU - Dahlawi, Saad M.A.

AU - Damiani, Giovanni

AU - Daoud, Farah

AU - Darwesh, Aso Mohammad

AU - Daryani, Ahmad

AU - Deribe, Kebede

AU - Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda

AU - Diaz, Daniel

AU - Do, Hoa Thi

AU - El Sayed Zak, Maysaa

AU - El Tantawi, Maha

AU - Elemineh, Demelash Abewa

AU - Faraj, Anwar

AU - Harandi, Majid Fasihi

AU - Fatahi, Yousef

AU - Feigin, Valery L.

AU - Fernandes, Eduarda

AU - Foigt, Nataliya A.

AU - Foroutan, Masoud

AU - Franklin, Richard Charles

AU - Mohialdeen Gubari, Mohammed Ibrahim

AU - Guido, Davide

AU - Guo, Yuming

AU - Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin

AU - Abdullah, Kanaan Hamagharib

AU - Hamidi, Samer

AU - Herteliu, Claudiu

AU - De Hidru, Hagos Degefa

AU - Higazi, Tarig B.

AU - Hossain, Naznin

AU - Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi

AU - Househ, Mowafa

AU - Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen

AU - Ilic, Milena D.

AU - Ilic, Irena M.

AU - Iqbal, Usman

AU - Naghibi Irvani, Seyed Sina

AU - Jha, Ravi Prakash

AU - Joukar, Farahnaz

AU - Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy

AU - Kabir, Zubair

AU - Kalankesh, Leila R.

AU - Kalhor, Rohollah

AU - Matin, Behzad Karami

AU - Karimi, Salah Eddin

AU - Kasaeian, Amir

AU - Kavetskyy, Taras

AU - Kayode, Gbenga A.

AU - Karyani, Ali Kazemi

AU - Kelbore, Abraham Getachew

AU - Keramati, Maryam

AU - Khalilov, Rovshan

AU - Khan, Ejaz Ahmad

AU - Nuruzzaman Khan, Md Nuruzzaman

AU - Khatab, Khaled

AU - Khater, Mona M.

AU - Kianipour, Neda

AU - Kibret, Kelemu Tilahun

AU - Kim, Yun Jin

AU - Kosen, Soewarta

AU - Krohn, Kris J.

AU - Kusuma, Dian

AU - Vecchia, Carlo La

AU - Lansingh Van, Charles

AU - Lee, Paul H.

AU - Legrand, Kate E.

AU - Li, Shanshan

AU - Longbottom, Joshua

AU - Abd El Razek, Hassan Magdy

AU - Abd El Razek, Muhammed Magdy

AU - Maleki, Afshin

AU - Mamun, Abdullah A.

AU - Manafi, Ali

AU - Manafi, Navid

AU - Mansournia, Mohammad Ali

AU - Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio

AU - Mazidi, Mohsen

AU - McAlinden, Colm

AU - Meharie, Birhanu Geta

AU - Mendoza, Walter

AU - Mengesha, Endalkachew Worku

AU - Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese

AU - Mereta, Seid Tiku

AU - Mestrovic, Tomislav

AU - Miller, Ted R.

AU - Miri, Mohammad

AU - Moghadaszadeh, Masoud

AU - Hafshejani, Abdollah Mohammadian

AU - Mohammadpourhodki, Reza

AU - Mohammed, Shafiu

AU - Mohammed, Salahuddin

AU - Moradi, Masoud

AU - Moradzadeh, Rahmatollah

AU - Moraga, Paula

AU - Mosser, Jonathan F.

AU - Naderi, Mehdi

AU - Nagarajan, Ahamarshan Jayaraman

AU - Naik, Gurudatta

AU - Negoi, Ionut

AU - Nguyen, Cuong Tat

AU - Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi

AU - Nguyen, Trang Huyen

AU - Nikbakhsh, Rajan

AU - Oancea, Bogdan

AU - Olagunju, Tinuke O.

AU - Olagunju, Andrew T.

AU - Bali, Ahmed Omar

AU - Onwujekwe, Obinna E.

AU - Pana, Adrian

AU - Pourjafar, Hadi

AU - Rahim, Fakher

AU - Ur Rahman, Mohammad Hifz

AU - Rathi, Priya

AU - Rawaf, Salman

AU - Rawaf, David Laith

AU - Rawassizadeh, Reza

AU - Resnikoff, Serge

AU - Reta, Melese Abate

AU - Rezapour, Aziz

AU - Rubagotti, Enrico

AU - Rubino, Salvatore

AU - Sadeghi, Ehsan

AU - Saghafipour, Abedin

AU - Sajadi, S. Mohammad

AU - Samy, Abdallah M.

AU - Sarmiento-Suárez, Rodrigo

AU - Sawhney, Monika

AU - Schipp, Megan F.

AU - Shaheen, Amira A.

AU - Shaikh, Masood Ali

AU - Shamsizadeh, Morteza

AU - Sharafi, Kiomars

AU - Sheikh, Aziz

AU - Kumar Shetty, B. Suresh

AU - Shin, Jae Il

AU - Shivakumar, K. M.

AU - Simonetti, Biagio

AU - Singh, Jasvinder A.

AU - Skiadaresi, Eirini

AU - Soheili, Amin

AU - Soltani, Shahin

AU - Spurlock, Emma Elizabeth

AU - Sufiyan, Mu’Awiyyah Babale

AU - Tabuchi, Takahiro

AU - Tapak, Leili

AU - Thompson, Robert L.

AU - Thomson, Alan J.

AU - Traini, Eugenio

AU - Tran, Bach Xuan

AU - Ullah, Irfan

AU - Ullah, Saif

AU - Uneke, Chigozie Jesse

AU - Unnikrishnan, Bhaskaran

AU - Uthman, Olalekan A.

AU - Melchers, Natalie V.S.Vinkeles

AU - Violante, Francesco S.

AU - Wolde, Haileab Fekadu

AU - Wonde, Tewodros Eshete

AU - Yamada, Tomohide

AU - Yaya, Sanni

AU - Yazdi Feyzabadi, Vahid

AU - Yip, Paul

AU - Yonemoto, Naohiro

AU - Yousof, Hebat Allah Salah A.

AU - Yu, Chuanhua

AU - Yu, Yong

AU - Yusefzadeh, Hasan

AU - Zaki, Leila

AU - Zaman, Sojib Bin

AU - Zamanian, Maryam

AU - Zhang, Zhi Jiang

AU - Zhang, Yunquan

AU - Ziapour, Arash

AU - Hay, Simon I.

AU - Pigott, David M.

N1 - Funding Information: This work was primarily supported by a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation OPP1132415 (SIH). Financial support from theNeglected Tropical Disease Modelling Consortium (https://www.ntdmodelling.org/), which is funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (grants No. OPP1184344 and OPP1186851), and joint centre funding (grant No. MR/R015600/1) by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) and the UK Department for International Development (DFID) under the MRC/DFID Concordat agreement which is also part of the EDCTP2 programme supported by the European Union (MGB). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Publisher Copyright: © 2021, Public Library of Science. All rights reserved.

PY - 2021/7/28

Y1 - 2021/7/28

N2 - Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0.71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50.2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5×5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify.

AB - Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0.71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50.2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5×5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85112387757

U2 - 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008824

DO - 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008824

M3 - Article

C2 - 34319976

AN - SCOPUS:85112387757

SN - 1935-2727

VL - 15

JO - PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases

JF - PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases

IS - 7

M1 - e0008824

ER -

Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning

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