Predicting the extinction of HIV-2 in rural Guinea-Bissau

HR Fryer, Carla Tienen, MS van der Loeff, P Aaby, ZJ Da Silva, H Whittle, SL Rowland-Jones, TI de Silva

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Abstract

Objective:This article predicts the future epidemiology of HIV-2 in Caio, a rural region of Guinea Bissau; and investigates whether HIV-2, which has halved in prevalence between 1990 and 2007 and is now almost absent in young adults in Caio, can persist as an infection of the elderly.Design:A mathematical model of the spread of HIV-2 was tailored to the epidemic in Caio, a village in Guinea-Bissau.Methods:An age-stratified difference equation model of HIV-2 transmission was fitted to age-stratified HIV-2 incidence and prevalence data from surveys conducted in Caio in 1990, 1997 and 2007. A stochastic version of the same model was used to make projections.Results:HIV-2 infection is predicted to continue to rapidly decline in Caio such that new infections will cease and prevalence will reach low levels (e.g. below 0.1%) within a few decades. HIV-2 is not predicted to persist in the elderly.Conclusion:HIV-2 is predicted go extinct in Caio during the second half of this century.
Original languageUndefined/Unknown
Pages (from-to)2479-2486
Number of pages8
JournalAIDS
Volume29
Issue number18
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2015

Research programs

  • EMC MM-04-28-01

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