Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in a Middle Eastern Country: Performance of the Globorisk and Score Functions in Four Population-Based Cohort Studies of Iran

Noushin Fahimfar, Akbar Fotouhi, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Reza Malekzadeh, Nizal Sarrafzadega, Fereidoun Azizi, Marjan Mansourian, Sadaf G. Sepanlou, Mohammad Hassan Emamian, Farzad Hadaegh, Hamidreza Roohafza, Hassan Hashemi, Hossein Poustchi, Akram Poursham, Tahereh Samavat, Maryam Sharafkhah, Mohamma Talaei, David Van Klaveren, Ewout W. Steyerberg, Davood Khalili*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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Abstract

Background: Considering the importance of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction for healthcare systems and the limited information available in the Middle East, we evaluated the SCORE and Globorisk models to predict CVD death in a country of this region. Methods: We included 24 427 participants (11 187 men) aged 40-80 years from four population-based cohorts in Iran. Updating approaches were used to recalibrate the baseline survival and the overall effect of the predictors of the models. We assessed the models’ discrimination using C-index and then compared the observed with the predicted risk of death using calibration plots. The sensitivity and specificity of the models were estimated at the risk thresholds of 3%, 5%, 7%, and 10%. An agreement between models was assessed using the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC). We applied decision analysis to provide perception into the consequences of using the models in general practice; for this reason, the clinical usefulness of the models was assessed using the net benefit (NB) and decision curve analysis. The NB is a sensitivity penalized by a weighted false positive (FP) rate in population level. Results: After 154 522 person-years of follow-up, 437 cardiovascular deaths (280 men) occurred. The 10-year observed risks were 4.2% (95% CI: 3.7%-4.8%) in men and 2.1% (1.8-2%.5%) in women. The c-index for SCORE function was 0.784 (0.756-0.812) in men and 0.780 (0.744-0.815) in women. Corresponding values for Globorisk were 0.793 (0.766-0.820) and 0.793 (0.757-0.829). The deviation of the calibration slopes from one reflected a need for recalibration; after which, the predicted-to-observed ratio for both models was 1.02 in men and 0.95 in women. Models showed good agreement (ICC 0.93 in men, and 0.89 in women). Decision curve showed that using both models results in the same clinical usefulness at the risk threshold of 5%, in both men and women; however, at the risk threshold of 10%, Globorisk had better clinical usefulness in women (Difference: 8%, 95% CI: 4%-13%). Conclusion: Original Globorisk and SCORE models overestimate the CVD risk in Iranian populations resulting in a high number of people who need intervention. Recalibration could adopt these models to precisely predict CVD mortality. Globorisk showed better performance clinically, only among high-risk women.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)210-217
Number of pages8
JournalInternational Journal of Health Policy and Management
Volume11
Issue number2
Early online dateJul 2020
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2022

Bibliographical note

© 2022 The Author(s); Published by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

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