Predictors of mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Catherine Owusuaa*, Simone A. Dijkland, Daan Nieboer, Carin C.D. van der Rijt, Agnes van der Heide

*Corresponding author for this work

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Background: Better insight in patients’ prognosis can help physicians to timely initiate advance care planning (ACP) discussions with patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We aimed to identify predictors of mortality. Methods: We systematically searched databases Embase, PubMed, MEDLINE, Web of Science, and Cochrane Central in April 2020. Papers reporting on predictors or prognostic models for mortality at 3 months and up to 24 months were assessed on risk-of-bias. We performed a meta-analysis with a fixed or random-effects model, and evaluated the discriminative ability of multivariable prognostic models. Results: We included 42 studies (49–418,251 patients); 18 studies were included in the meta-analysis. Significant predictors of mortality within 3–24 months in the random-effects model were: previous hospitalization for acute exacerbation (hazard ratio [HR] 1.97; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.32–2.95), hospital readmission within 30 days (HR 5.01; 95% CI 2.16–11.63), cardiovascular comorbidity (HR 1.89; 95% CI 1.25–2.87), age (HR 1.48; 95% CI 1.38–1.59), male sex (HR 1.68; 95% CI 1.38–1.59), and long-term oxygen therapy (HR 1.74; 95% CI 1.10–2.73). Nineteen previously developed multicomponent prognostic models, as examined in 11 studies, mostly had moderate discriminate ability. Conclusion: Identified predictors of mortality may aid physicians in selecting COPD patients who may benefit from ACP. However, better discriminative ability of prognostic models or development of a new prognostic model is needed for further large-scale implementation. Registration: PROSPERO (CRD42016038494),

Original languageEnglish
Article number125
JournalBMC Pulmonary Medicine
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 4 Apr 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This study was funded by The Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMw) [grant number 844001209].The funder of the study had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s).


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