Projections on the number of individuals with atrial fibrillation in the European Union, from 2000 to 2060

Bouwe Krijthe, Anton Kunst, EJ Benjamin, GYH Lip, OH Franco Duran, Bert Hofman, JCM Witteman, Bruno Stricker, Jan Heeringa

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Aims Since atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased risks of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular complications, estimations on the number of individuals with AF are relevant to healthcare planning. We aimed to project the number of individuals with AF in the Netherlands and in the European Union from 2000 to 2060. Methods and results Age-and sex-specific AF prevalence estimates were obtained from the prospective community-based Rotterdam Study. Population projections for the Netherlands and the European Union were obtained from the European Union's statistics office. In the age stratum of 55-59 years, the prevalence of AF was 1.3% in men (95% CI: 0.4-3.6%) and 1.7% in women (95% CI: 0.7-4.0%). The prevalence of AF increased to 24.2% in men (95% CI: 18.5-30.7%), and 16.1% in women (95% CI: 13.1-19.4%), for Conclusion We estimate that from 2010 to 2060, the number of adults 55 years and over with AF in the European Union will more than double. As AF is associated with significant morbidities and mortality, this increasing number of individuals with AF may have major public health implications.
Original languageUndefined/Unknown
Pages (from-to)2746-2751
Number of pages6
JournalEuropean Heart Journal
Issue number35
Publication statusPublished - 2013

Research programs

  • EMC NIHES-01-64-01

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