Provincial migration in China: Preliminary insights from the 2010 population census

In anticipation of the forthcoming release of the 2010 national population
census of China, this paper compares the limited population data that have
been released so far with annual data on natural population increase since the
2000 census in order to construct a rough but robust measure of net migration
for each province in China between these two censuses. The results emphasise
the extent of net out-migration from much of interior and western China as
well as the degree to which rapid population growth in five coastal growth
poles has been due to net in-migration. In total, 15 out of 31 provinces
experienced net population outflows between the two censuses according to
this measure, versus only six that experienced negative population growth,
leaving nine provinces that registered positive population growth at the same
time as net out-migration. Three exceptions to the western pattern of net
outflows were the Tibet Autonomous Region, Xinjiang and Ningxia, which
had the highest average natural population increase rates in China and also
continued to experience moderate net in-migration. Overall, the sheer extent
and speed of these flows, which have been mostly contained within national
borders, sheds light on the enormity of the developmental challenges facing
the government in this context, as well as the demographic pressures placed on
the coastal growth poles absorbing most of the net flows. Moreover, there
appears to be little association between rates of net migration and provincial
rates of economic growth or even provincial levels of per capita GDP during
this period, except in the broadest interregional sense that the three coastal
province-level entities exhibiting the strongest rates of net in-migration –
Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin – were by far the most affluent in China