Real Options with Ex-Post Division of the Surplus

This paper examines a real option model where two vertically related firms are involved in a specific investment project that is subject to an uncertain payoff. While ex-post bargaining between a seller and a buyer leads to underinvestment by the seller in a standard model where timing of the seller’s investment is exogenous, we show that this need not be the case when the seller’s timing of investment is endogenous. However, bargaining with a buyer leads to excessive waiting. More severe holdup and higher uncertainty will lead to vertical integration of activities to avoid timing inefficiencies.