Reducing societal impacts of SARS-CoV-2 interventions through subnational implementation

To curb the initial spread of SARS-CoV-2, many countries relied on nation-wide implementation of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures, resulting in substantial socio-economic
impacts. Potentially, subnational implementations might have had less of a societal impact, but
comparable epidemiological impact. Here, using the first COVID-19 wave in the Netherlands as a
case in point, we address this issue by developing a high-resolution analysis framework that uses a
demographically stratified population and a spatially explicit, dynamic, individual contact-pattern
based epidemiology, calibrated to hospital admissions data and mobility trends extracted from
mobile phone signals and Google. We demonstrate how a subnational approach could achieve
similar level of epidemiological control in terms of hospital admissions, while some parts of the
country could stay open for a longer period. Our framework is exportable to other countries and
settings, and may be used to develop policies on subnational approach as a better strategic choice
for controlling future epidemics.