Replication files for 'Estimating warfare-related civilian mortality in the early modern period: Evidence from the Low Countries, 1620–99’

Bram van Besouw (Producer), Daniel Curtis (Producer)

Research output: Non-textual formDigital or Visual ProductsAcademic

Original languageEnglish
Media of outputOnline
Publication statusPublished - 18 Aug 2021

Bibliographical note

Early modern warfare in western Europe exposed civilian populations to violence, hardship, and disease. Despite limited empirical evidence, the ensuing mortality effects are regularly invoked by economic historians to explain patterns of economic development. Using newly collected data on adult burials and war events in the seventeenth-century Low Countries, we estimate early modern war-driven mortality in localities close to military activity. We find a clear and significant general mortality effect consistent with the localized presence of diseases. During years with major epidemic disease outbreaks, we demonstrate a stronger mortality effect. However, this effect is spatially more variable during epidemics, with excess mortality not monotonically declining with distance from warfare. Given the omnipresence of warfare in the seventeenth-century Low Countries, war-driven mortality was remarkably constant rather than a sharp discontinuity. The economic impact of warfare likely played out over the long term rather than driven by sudden large mortality spikes creating rapid structural change.

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