Scenarios of future mpox outbreaks among men who have sex with men: a modelling study based on cross-sectional seroprevalence data from the Netherlands, 2022

Marc C. Shamier, Luca M. Zaeck, Hannelore M. Götz, Bruno Vieyra, Babs E. Verstrepen, Koen Wijnans, Matthijs R.A. Welkers, Elske Hoornenborg, Brigitte A.G.L. van Cleef, Martin E. van Royen, Kai J. Jonas, Marion P.G. Koopmans, Rory D. de Vries, David A.M.C. van de Vijver, Corine H. GeurtsvanKessel*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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Abstract

Background: 

Following the 2022–2023 mpox outbreak, crucial knowledge gaps exist regarding orthopoxvirus-specific immunity in risk groups and its impact on future outbreaks. Aim: We combined cross-sectional seroprevalence studies in two cities in the Netherlands with mathematical modelling to evaluate scenarios of future mpox outbreaks among men who have sex with men (MSM). 

Methods: 

Serum samples were obtained from 1,065 MSM attending Centres for Sexual Health (CSH) in Rotterdam or Amsterdam following the peak of the Dutch mpox outbreak and the introduction of vaccination. For MSM visiting the Rotterdam CSH, sera were linked to epidemiological and vaccination data. An in-house developed ELISA was used to detect vaccinia virus (VACV)-specific IgG. These observations were combined with published data on serial interval and vaccine effectiveness to inform a stochastic transmission model that estimates the risk of future mpox outbreaks.

Results

The seroprevalence of VACV-specific antibodies was 45.4% and 47.1% in Rotterdam and Amsterdam, respectively. Transmission modelling showed that the impact of risk group vaccination on the original outbreak was likely small. However, assuming different scenarios, the number of mpox cases in a future outbreak would be markedly reduced because of vaccination. Simultaneously, the current level of immunity alone may not prevent future outbreaks. Maintaining a short time-to-diagnosis is a key component of any strategy to prevent new outbreaks. 

Conclusion: 

Our findings indicate a reduced likelihood of large future mpox outbreaks among MSM in the Netherlands under current conditions, but emphasise the importance of maintaining population immunity, diagnostic capacities and disease awareness.

Original languageEnglish
Article number2300532
JournalEurosurveillance
Volume29
Issue number17
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 25 Apr 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). All rights reserved.

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