Simple Risk Model Predicts Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation in a Racially and Geographically Diverse Population: the CHARGE-AF Consortium

A Alonso, Bouwe Krijthe, T Aspelund, KA Stepas, MJ Pencina, CB Moser, MF Sinner, N Sotoodehnia, JD Fontes, Cecile Janssens, RA Kronmal, JW Magnani, JCM Witteman, AM Chamberlain, SA Lubitz, RB Schnabel, SK Agarwal, DD McManus, PT Ellinor, MG LarsonGL Burke, LJ (Lenore) Launer, Bert Hofman, D Levy, JS Gottdiener, S Kaab, D Couper, TB Harris, EZ Soliman, Bruno Stricker, V Gudnason, SR Heckbert, EJ Benjamin

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

582 Citations (Scopus)


Background-Tools for the prediction of atrial fibrillation (AF) may identify high-risk individuals more likely to benefit from preventive interventions and serve as a benchmark to test novel putative risk factors. Methods and Results-Individual-level data from 3 large cohorts in the United States (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities [ARIC] study, the Cardiovascular Health Study [CHS], and the Framingham Heart Study [FHS]), including 18 556 men and women aged 46 to 94 years (19% African Americans, 81% whites) were pooled to derive predictive models for AF using clinical variables. Validation of the derived models was performed in 7672 participants from the Age, Gene and Environment-Reykjavik study (AGES) a Conclusion-A risk model including variables readily available in primary care settings adequately predicted AF in diverse populations from the United States and Europe.
Original languageUndefined/Unknown
JournalJournal of the American Heart Association
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - 2013

Research programs

  • EMC NIHES-01-64-03

Cite this