Start with the End: Measurement of Behavioural Influencing in Military Operations

Information has long determined the outcome of war, both on the battlefield and by “winning hearts and minds”. It dates back as far as 12th century BCE when, according to Greek mythology, the Trojan Horse was used as a deception tactic by the Greeks to sway the Spartan’s knowledge and beliefs in order to ultimately influence their behaviour. Later on, during World War II, similar influencing tactics, like deception, were used to achieve strategic objectives. One such example is Operation Fortitude. Operation Fortitude was part of a larger
strategy called Operation Bodyguard, where the Allied Forces employed a series of disinformation tactics that targeted the Germans’ knowledge, beliefs, and emotions in order to ultimately influence their behaviour. Which in this case was, making sure that they kept their forces and resources focused on Calais rather than Normandy where the real invasion was being planned. The surprise counter offensive launched by the Ukrainian army in Kharkiv, instead of Kherson, can be considered a modern version of Operation Fortitude. These examples show how, throughout history, targeting the cognitive environment in order to influence the physical behaviour has been an important factor in deciding the outcome of war, on and off the battlefield.

In this report, we introduce effect measurement of behavioural influencing in three stages of the intervention, being pre-intervention, during intervention, and post-intervention. Hereafter, an introduction into different methods that can be used to quantify the effect of behavioural interventions is given. This is followed by an overview of data collection methods to measure knowledge, beliefs, emotions and behaviour. An in-depth discussion of these measuring and data collection methods is provided in the annex at the end of the paper. The combination between a measuring and data collection method is called a Data-Method Capability. These capabilities are assessed on the basis of the military feasibility of implementation for which five different criteria are used. The criteria are applied to the Data-Method Capabilities, on the basis of a context-specific scenario in order to assess their feasibility. The paper ends with a discussion on how and which possible emerging technologies can further impact the measuring of behavioural influencing eects. After which ultimately the
conclusion follows.