Testing for bias in forecasts for independent binary outcomes

Philip Hans Franses

doi:10.1080/13504851.2020.1838429

Testing for bias in forecasts for independent binary outcomes

Philip Hans Franses^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

This letter deals with a test on forecast bias in predicting independent binary outcomes, where the outcomes are either 1 or 0, and the predictions are probabilities. The test concerns two parameter restrictions in a simple logit model. Size-corrected power experiments show remarkable power.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1336
Number of pages	1338
Journal	Applied Economics Letters
Volume	28
Issue number	15
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2020.1838429
Publication status	Accepted/In press - 27 Oct 2020

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© 2020 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

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10.1080/13504851.2020.1838429

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Testing for bias in forecasts for independent binary outcomes

Abstract

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