Testing for international business cycles: A multilevel factor model with stochastic factor selection

Tino Berger, Gerdie Everaert, Lorenzo Pozzi*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)
2 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

The empirical literature on common international business cycles has largely ignored model misspecification in estimated factor models as the various cycles are typically imposed but not tested for. This paper proposes a Bayesian stochastic factor selection approach for multilevel factor models. The procedure is applied to a three-level dynamic factor model with a global factor, six regional factors and three development level factors. We estimate the factor model using real GDP growth data for a panel of 60 countries over the period 1961−2017. We find robust evidence for the presence of a global business cycle, four regional cycles (Europe, North America, Latin America and Asia) and two development level cycles (industrial countries and emerging market economies). This suggests that both geographical proximity and the development level of countries are important dimensions of international business cycle synchronization that should be considered simultaneously, a point not previously made in the existing synchronization literature.

Original languageEnglish
Article number104134
JournalJournal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Volume128
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2021

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© 2021 The Author(s)

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