The heterogeneous effects of COVID-19 lockdowns on crime across the world

N. Trajtenberg*, S. Fossati, C. Diaz, A. E. Nivette, R. Aguilar, A. Ahven, L. Andrade, S. Amram, B. Ariel, M. J. Arosemena Burbano, R. Astolfi, D. Baier, H. M. Bark, J. E.H. Beijers, M. Bergman, D. Borges, G. Breeztke, I. Cano, I. A. Concha Eastman, S. Curtis-HamR. Davenport, C. Droppelman, D. Fleitas, M. Gerell, K. H. Jang, J. Kääriäinen, T. Lappi-Seppälä, W. S. Lim, R. Loureiro Revilla, L. Mazerolle, C. Mendoza, G. Meško, N. Pereda, M. F. Peres, R. Poblete-Cazenave, E. Rojido, S. Rose, O. Sanchez de Ribera, R. Svensson, T. van der Lippe, J. A.M. Veldkamp, C. J. Vilalta Perdomo, R. Zahnow, M. P. Eisner

*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

There is a vast literature evaluating the empirical association between stay-at-home policies and crime during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, these academic efforts have primarily focused on the effects within specific cities or regions rather than adopting a cross-national comparative approach. Moreover, this body of literature not only generally lacks causal estimates but also has overlooked possible heterogeneities across different levels of stringency in mobility restrictions. This paper exploits the spatial and temporal variation of government responses to the pandemic in 45 cities across five continents to identify the causal impact of strict lockdown policies on the number of offenses reported to local police. We find that cities that implemented strict lockdowns experienced larger declines in some crime types (robbery, burglary, vehicle theft) but not others (assault, theft, homicide). This decline in crime rates attributed to more stringent policy responses represents only a small proportion of the effects documented in the literature.

Original languageEnglish
Article number22
JournalCrime Science
Volume13
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 22 Aug 2024

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Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s) 2024.

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