The importance of disease prevalence in clinical decision making: a real practice study on COVID-19 antigen test in Curacao

The performance of a test can be suboptimal, but in appropriate setting such a test is still useful for clinical decision making. We investigated the role of Antigen Rapid Diagnostic Test (Ag-RDT) for clinical decision making in an Emergency Department (ED) in Curacao during peak of COVID-19 pandemic. Ag-RDT was performed in the naso- and oropharynx-swabs from patients with respiratory insufficiency presented to the ED. Ag-RDT was performed in 153 patients, of which 64 (41.8%) showed positive results. Comparing Ag-RDT results with molecular tests, its sensitivity was 68.8% (95% CI 57.4 to 78.7), and specificity of 94.6% (95% CI 84.9 to 98.9). The positive and negative predictive value were 95.1% (95% CI 86.5 to 98.3) and 66.3 (95% CI 58.6 to 73.3), respectively. All patients with Ag-RDT positive test were admitted to the cohorted COVD-19 department of the hospital. By using Ag-RDT, 35.9% of rapid PCR tests (that are more costly and laborious to perform) could be avoided at cost of 5.8% patients with false positive result. In conclusion, in real practice, disease prevalence is as important as test's performance for clinical decision making. The conclusion may also be applicable for other diagnostic tests than COVID-19 diagnostic.