The lifetime health and economic burden of obesity in five European countries: what is the potential impact of prevention?

Aim: Estimating the burden of obesity in five European countries (Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Spain and the UK) and the potential health benefits and changes in health care costs associated with a reduction in body mass index (BMI). Materials and Methods: A Markov model was used to estimate the long-term burden of obesity. Health states were based on the occurrence of diabetes, ischaemic heart disease and stroke. Multiple registries and literature sources were used to derive the demographic, epidemiological and cost input parameters. For the base-case analyses, the model was run for a starting cohort of healthy obese people with a BMI of 30 and 35 kg/m² aged 40 years to estimate the lifetime impact of obesity and the impact of a one-unit decrease in BMI. Different scenario and sensitivity analyses were performed. Results: The base-case analyses showed that total lifetime health care costs (for obese people aged 40 and BMI 35 kg/m²) ranged from €75 376 in Greece to €343 354 in the Netherlands, with life expectancies ranging from 37.9 years in Germany to 39.7 years in Spain. A one-unit decrease in BMI showed gains in life expectancy ranging from 0.65 to 0.68 year and changes in total health care costs varying from −€1563 to +€4832. Conclusions: The economic burden of obesity is substantial in the five countries. Decreasing BMI results in health gains, reductions in obesity-related health care costs, but an increase in non-obesity related health care costs, which emphasizes the relevance of including all costs in decision making on implementation of preventive interventions.