The long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on loneliness in European older women and men: a growth curve analysis

This study examines the long-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on loneliness among adults aged 65 and over across 27 European countries, focusing on gender differences and the role of government-imposed containment measures. Using longitudinal data from four waves of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), pre-pandemic (Wave 8), two SHARE Corona surveys (2020–2021), and post-pandemic (Wave 9), the analyses include 49,351 observations from 15,497 individuals. Logistic growth curve models (wave–individual–country) were estimated to assess changes in loneliness across pandemic periods and to explore how gender and policy stringency shaped these patterns. The results show that loneliness increased significantly during the second COVID-19 phases and remained elevated in the post-pandemic period compared with pre-pandemic levels, indicating a sustained rise in emotional vulnerability among older adults, especially for women. Higher policy stringency was associated with greater loneliness, following a curvilinear pattern: Loneliness rose with increasing restriction levels but leveled off and declined at the highest stringency levels. Interaction analyses showed that women were more sensitive to increases in policy stringency. The findings underscore the persistent and gendered effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on loneliness among Europe’s older population. Public health and social policy interventions should adopt gender-sensitive and context-aware approaches to reduce loneliness and enhance resilience during and after large-scale crises.