TY - JOUR
T1 - The predictive value of neurobiological measures for recidivism in delinquent male young adults
AU - Zijlmans, Josjan
AU - Marhe, Reshmi
AU - Bevaart, Floor
AU - Van Duin, Laura
AU - Luijks, Marie Jolette A.
AU - Franken, Ingmar
AU - Tiemeier, Henning
AU - Popma, Arne
N1 - © 2021 Joule Inc. or its licensors.
PY - 2021/3
Y1 - 2021/3
N2 - Background: Neurobiological measures have been associated with delinquent behaviour, but little is known about the predictive power of these measures for criminal recidivism and whether they have incremental value over and above demographic and behavioural measures. This study examined whether selected measures of autonomic functioning, functional neuroimaging and electroencephalography predict overall and serious recidivism in a sample of 127 delinquent young adults. Methods: We assessed demographics; education and intelligence; previous delinquency and drug use; behavioural traits, including aggression and psychopathy; and neurobiological measures, including heart rate, heart rate variability, functional brain activity during an inhibition task and 2 electroencephalographic measures of error-processing. We tested longitudinal associations with recidivism using Cox proportional hazard models and predictive power using C-indexes. Results: Past offences, long-term cannabis use and reactive aggression were strongly associated with recidivism, as were resting heart rate and error-processing. In the predictive model, demographics, past delinquency, drug use and behavioural traits had moderate predictive power for overall and for serious recidivism (C-index over 30 months [fraction of pairs in the data, where the higher observed survival time was correctly predicted]: C30 = 0.68 and 0.75, respectively). Neurobiological measures significantly improved predictive power (C30 = 0.72 for overall recidivism and C30 = 0.80 for serious recidivism). Limitations: Findings cannot be generalized to females, and follow-up was limited to 4 years. Conclusion: Demographic and behavioural characteristics longitudinally predicted recidivism in delinquent male young adults, and neurobiological measures improved the models. This led to good predictive function, particularly for serious recidivism. Importantly, the most feasible measures (autonomic functioning and electroencephalography) proved to be useful neurobiological predictors.
AB - Background: Neurobiological measures have been associated with delinquent behaviour, but little is known about the predictive power of these measures for criminal recidivism and whether they have incremental value over and above demographic and behavioural measures. This study examined whether selected measures of autonomic functioning, functional neuroimaging and electroencephalography predict overall and serious recidivism in a sample of 127 delinquent young adults. Methods: We assessed demographics; education and intelligence; previous delinquency and drug use; behavioural traits, including aggression and psychopathy; and neurobiological measures, including heart rate, heart rate variability, functional brain activity during an inhibition task and 2 electroencephalographic measures of error-processing. We tested longitudinal associations with recidivism using Cox proportional hazard models and predictive power using C-indexes. Results: Past offences, long-term cannabis use and reactive aggression were strongly associated with recidivism, as were resting heart rate and error-processing. In the predictive model, demographics, past delinquency, drug use and behavioural traits had moderate predictive power for overall and for serious recidivism (C-index over 30 months [fraction of pairs in the data, where the higher observed survival time was correctly predicted]: C30 = 0.68 and 0.75, respectively). Neurobiological measures significantly improved predictive power (C30 = 0.72 for overall recidivism and C30 = 0.80 for serious recidivism). Limitations: Findings cannot be generalized to females, and follow-up was limited to 4 years. Conclusion: Demographic and behavioural characteristics longitudinally predicted recidivism in delinquent male young adults, and neurobiological measures improved the models. This led to good predictive function, particularly for serious recidivism. Importantly, the most feasible measures (autonomic functioning and electroencephalography) proved to be useful neurobiological predictors.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85104210716&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1503/jpn.200103
DO - 10.1503/jpn.200103
M3 - Article
C2 - 33844482
AN - SCOPUS:85104210716
SN - 1180-4882
VL - 46
SP - E271-E280
JO - Journal of Psychiatry and Neuroscience
JF - Journal of Psychiatry and Neuroscience
IS - 2
ER -